Yesterday's announcement by the G8 that the world will reduce its emissions 50% by 2050 is yet another example of the folly of long-term emissions targets and timetables. For years, climate activists around the world have believed that one of the highest priorities of the climate movement should be to pressure political leaders to adopt large emissions reduction targets. "80% by 2050" became the mantra of the movement. In the run-up to the current G8 meeting, the EU piled political pressure on Japan and the US to adopt a 2050 target, and after yesterday's announcement the EU President Jose Manuel Barroso called it "a strong signal to citizens around the world."

But the focus on long-term targets has had the opposite of its intended impact. It has allowed politicians to commit to distant goals that are effectively meaningless, and yesterday's G8 announcement is case in point. The G8 adopted a big goal -- 50% reductions by 2050 -- and trumpeted it victoriously from Hokkaido. The target, however, is fraudulent, and it should serve as a warning to anyone concerned with the climate.

First, the agreement is extremely vague, failing to even specify whether the 50% reduction target is below the levels of 1990, 2000, or today. Second, it makes no commitments to mid-term or immediate action. And third, it was rejected by developing countries. South Africa's environment minister, Marthinus van Schalkwyk, went to the extent of suggesting the agreement may be a step backward, saying that "While the statement may appear as a movement forward, we are concerned that it may, in effect, be a regression from what is required to make a meaningful contribution to meeting the challenges of climate change ... the long term goal is an empty slogan without substance." And as the NYT's reports:

The five main developing nations -- China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa, who together represent 42 percent of the world's population -- issued a statement explaining their split with the G-8 over its emissions-reduction goals. They said they rejected the notion that all should share in the 50-percent target, since it is wealthier countries that have created most of the environmental damage up to now...

Chinese President Hu Jintao went a step further in separate remarks. While acknowledging that developing nations must act, he said ''developed countries should make explicit commitments to continue to take the lead in emissions reduction."

"China's central task now is to develop the economy and make life better for the people,'' he said. ''... China's per capita emission is relatively low.''

Fortunately, the focus on targets and caps may be shifting. Several environmental groups criticized the G8 announcement, although much of the heat simply criticized 50% by 2050 as being too small a target, instead of highlighting the larger problems with targets and caps. James Hansen attacked the use of targets at a recent presentation to UN University. And Peter Orszag wrote an op-ed for the Washington Post today accepting the limits of caps and embracing the inevitability of cost-containment. This shift, however, has not yet embraced the role of government investments in clean energy technology.

But beyond the issue with targets, the G8 also missed a critical shift in the global climate debate: the center of political gravity for acting on climate is in the Pacific, not the Atlantic, and any workable strategy has to include China and India. As Gwyn Prins recently wrote:

At the Bali climate conference in 2007, the geopolitical centre of gravity for climate policy shifted decisively away from the Kyoto enthusiasts, such as Al Gore and the EU, to the Pacific...

The shape of the future agenda may reside with Japan. Supported by other Pacific powers, it is leading a profound shift to an approach emphasising radical improvements in energy intensity. This concentrates initially on the most energy-intensive sectors, with ambitious plans for both technology research and development and technology transfer to help China and India reduce the impact of their programmes of coal burning, which are an inescapable feature of the next 30 years.

Japan may be leading the way in a new approach with its Cool Earth Partnership, an innovative plan that has the potential to achieve real reductions in the developing world, where the majority of emissions growth is taking place. Will the G8 get it right? Stay tuned.