In our first analysis of the Waxman-Markey bill's allowance allocation, we found it would spend about $9 billion annually on a range of things that could generously be classified as technology innovation. Only $735 million of this would go toward clean energy R&D, an order of magnitude less than the $15 billion consistently promised by Obama and the $30 billion called for by several Nobel laureates and many of the world's top energy experts.
However, this funding level assumed an average price of $15 per allowance from 2012-2025. Some analysts, including Joseph Romm of Climate Progress, expect the bill to maintain a low price of $5-10 per allowance for the first several years, due to the major carbon offset provisions and other factors. If the price was $5 from 2012-2025, the average annual investment in all areas generously classified as energy innovation would be $3 billion, roughly equivalent to current federal energy R&D. This table compares clean energy investments for $5 per ton vs. $15 per ton:
