By Johanna Peace, Breakthrough Fellow 

In a post today on DotEarth, Andy Revkin raises an excellent question: President Obama has repeatedly promised America $150 billion in clean energy spending over ten years--but, if and when that money materializes, what precisely has it been promised for?

As Breakthrough has observed, the language of Obama's promise has varied over time. During the campaign, he pledged $150 billion to help "build a clean energy future." At that point, Obama suggested the money would go toward a variety of green improvements ranging from development and deployment to new grid and infrastructure.

But as Revkin notes, the White House web site now states more narrowly that the Obama administration will: "Invest $150 billion over 10 years in energy research and development to transition to a clean energy economy."

Continue reading "Revkin: Will Obama Invest $150 Billion in R&D Alone? " »

By Yael Borofsky, Breakthrough Fellow

Yesterday the U.S. Senate passed the Energy and Water Appropriations Bill (H.R. 3183) appropriating $34.3 billion in energy spending for FY2010. The bill supports Barack Obama's campaign promise to shut down Nevada's Yucca Mountain nuclear waste facility and funds numerous water initiatives set-forth by the Army Corps of Engineers.

Notably absent, however, is any funding for RE-ENERGYSE (REgaining our ENERGY Science and Engineering Edge), Obama's proposed initiative to close the energy education gap by preparing young Americans to compete in the race for clean energy. From Obama's initial proposal of $115 million, the House and Senate Appropriations Committees rejected the program by cutting funding to $7 million and $0, respectively. The bill that passed through the Senate, by an 85-9 vote, contained no mention of the forward-thinking and much-needed education program.

By rejecting RE-ENERGYSE, Congress has ignored this critical component of President Obama's call for global competitiveness in clean energy technology. This decision is especially disappointing in light of the expression of "strong" opposition to defunding RE-ENERGYSE" voiced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) the day before the Senate bill passed.

Continue reading "Senate Rejects Obama's Energy Education Program" »

By Yael Borofsky, Breakthrough Fellow

If pressed, most policymakers would concur that symbolism is not the foundation of sound and effective policy. Yet, as University of Colorado Professor and Breakthrough Institute Senior Fellow, Roger Pielke, Jr. points out in his piece featured today on Yale Environment 360, climate policies contingent on carbon emissions targets are often just that: symbolic.

The article was prompted by criticism of Japan's commitment to seemingly small reduction targets, with a significant portion of the finger-wagging coming from the U.K.

The appeal of emissions targets lies in their simplicity. By setting a (usually lofty) long-term goal for reducing carbon emissions, governments appear pro-active in their efforts to deal with climate change. But as Pielke, Jr. repeatedly emphasizes, ambitious targets unsubstantiated by strategies for achieving those goals are not only simple and symbolic, they are misleading.

In lieu of a realistic plan of action and pressured by an untenable goal, governments resort to creative accounting tricks so that their carbon "budget" is balanced. Thus, a nation can be a symbolic climate change hero without actually decarbonizing. The article quotes Stanford's David Victor:

[S]etting binding emission targets through treaties is wrongheaded because it 'forces' governments to do things they don't know how to do. And that puts them in a box, from which they escape using accounting tricks (e.g., offsets) rather than real effort.

According to Pielke, Jr. the UK's recent adoption of aggressive targets provides a definitive example of why they are a "magical solution" to climate change mitigation that unfortunately will not deliver results:

To achieve a 34 percent reduction from 1990 emissions by 2022 while maintaining modest economic growth would require that the U.K. decarbonize its economy to the level of France by about 2016. In more concrete terms, Britain would have to achieve the equivalent of deploying about 30 new nuclear power plants in the next six years, just to get part way to its target. One does not need a degree in nuclear physics to conclude that is just not going to happen.

Decarbonization of an economy, however, is not driven by target-setting or accounting. Using the Kaya Identity as a guide, a simple equation that illustrates how a nation's population, GDP, energy mix, and energy use all contribute to its total carbon emissions, the only real, feasible policy recourse for achieving decarbonization is to drive improvements in the carbon intensity of the energy supply and/or energy efficiency as rapidly as possible. Neither targets nor offsets are a factor in the equation.

Continue reading "Pielke, Jr: Forget "Magical Solutions" and Directly Decarbonize the Economy" »

By Jesse Jenkins & Teryn Norris
Originally featured at the Huffington Post
Cross-posted at Grist.org

On Monday, Joe Romm of Climate Progress publicly attacked us for publishing an op-ed in the San Francisco Chronicle -- called "Will America lose the clean energy race?" (a longer version was posted here at Huffington Post.). In that piece, we urged Congress to fully fund President Obama's energy education initiative and scale up direct pubic investments in low-carbon energy to accelerate our transition to a clean energy economy.

Romm asserted that our op-ed "attacks" President Obama and Democratic leaders, when in fact it calls on Congress to support Obama's RE-ENERGYSE energy education program and urges greater public investment in clean energy to compete with Asian challengers. Yet Romm never mentioned the central focus of the op-ed -- RE-ENERGYSE and our efforts to rally support behind it, including a recent sign-on letter with over 100 organizations -- and instead criticized us for what he called "willfully misleading nonsense" about Asian countries' planned investments in clean energy.

Romm proceeded to make several factually incorrect statements about Asia's plans for clean energy investment that contradict research in publicly accessible reports and analyses, including those by the Center for American Progress (CAP), which employs Romm. The Breakthrough Institute wrote a comprehensive fact check here to correct Romm's numerous misstatements and clarify the details of public investment plans in China, South Korea and Japan.

Romm also criticized us for asserting that Congress must strengthen the Waxman-Markey bill with greater investments in clean energy to compete with Asian challengers and accelerate our transition to a clean energy economy. Why? Because Romm apparently believes the Waxman-Markey proposal -- which would invest only $10 billion per year in clean energy and energy efficiency, less than 0.1% of U.S GDP -- is sufficient to win the clean energy race. It is not.

"Waxman-Markey would complete America's transition to a clean energy economy, which started with the stimulus bill," reads the title of a prominently featured post on Romm's website, a claim he has repeated multiple times. "Waxman-Markey would generate more clean energy action than any piece of legislation passed by any country in the history of the world!" exclaimed Romm in another recent post as part of his consistent and ongoing cheer-leading for the legislation.

Continue reading "Joe Romm's Strategy to Lose the Clean Energy Race" »

Today, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) expressed "strong opposition" to the Senate's attempt to cut funding for two key Obama administration energy initiatives, which received no support in the recent committee markup of Energy and Water Appropriations bill.  The bill significantly scales back support for the administration's Energy Innovation Hubs, and its completely zeroes $115 million in funding requested for President Obama's new energy education initiative, RE-ENERGYSE.

According to Congress Daily:

OMB raised concerns about certain provisions, saying it strongly opposes reductions in funding for Energy Innovation Hubs, and the science and engineering education outreach campaign RE-ENERGYSE program, among other concerns.

"The Hubs will advance highly promising areas of energy science and technology from their early states and RE-ENERGYSE will help develop the science and engineering workforce needed to bring those ideas to life by encouraging tens of thousands of American students to pursue careers in science, engineering, and entrepreneurship related to clean energy," OMB said.

The Breakthrough Institute recently organized a letter signed by over 100 institutions and universities urging Congress to fully fund the Re-ENERGYSE program, which they said "will train America's future energy workforce, accelerate our transition to a prosperous clean-energy economy, and ensure that we lead the world's burgeoning clean technology industries."

Yesterday, Breakthrough's Jesse Jenkins and Teryn Norris penned an op-ed for the San Francisco Chronicle warning that without a vigorous commitment to education and innovation in order to bridge the energy education gap, we will effectively cede the clean-energy race to our Asian competitors.

The full Senate took up the $34.3 billion Energy and Water Appropriations bill yesterday, and plans to clear it by the end of the week.

On Monday, Joe Romm of Climate Progress publicly attacked the Breakthrough Institute for publishing an op-ed in the San Francisco Chronicle -- called "Will America lose the clean energy race?" -- which urged Congress to fully fund President Obama's energy education initiative and scale up direct pubic investments in clean energy to boost U.S. economic competitiveness and accelerate the nation's transition to a clean energy economy.

Romm never mentioned the central focus of the op-ed -- President Obama's energy education program (RE-ENERGYSE) and the Breakthrough Institute's efforts to rally support behind this program -- and instead attacked it for what he calls "willfully misleading nonsense" about Asian countries' planned investments in clean energy, while apparently defending the smaller investments in the proposed Waxman-Markey American Clean Energy and Security Act.  

Romm asserts that the op-ed "attacks" President Obama and Democratic leaders, when in fact the op-ed is aimed at supporting the President's RE-ENERGYSE program and calling for larger public investment in clean energy to compete with Asian challengers.  The RE-ENERGYSE initiative is currently in danger of being cut by Congress at a time when the U.S. is severely lagging in energy science and technology education, and last week the Breakthrough Institute organized over 100 universities, student groups and other organizations to submit a letter urging Congress to fully fund the initiative.

Romm makes several factually incorrect statements about Asia's plans for clean energy investment that contradict research in publicly accessible reports and analyses, including those by the Center for American Progress (which employs Romm).  Here is a fact check to correct Romm's misstatements and clarify the details of investment plans in Asia:
    
1.  The op-ed states, "China alone is reportedly investing $440 billion to $660 billion in its clean-energy industries over 10 years."

Romm's response:

"the China figure -- while it is certainly impressive and definitely should motivate U.S. action (as I have argued) -- is "reported" and cumulative over 10 years.  It is part of their stimulus and NOT just R&D, but an investment in clean-energy industries broadly defined"

Facts: China's planned investment of $440-$660 billion over 10 years is indeed part of an economic stimulus package, but not the original $586 billion stimulus that is passed late last year, as Romm implies.  The new investment, according to a recent paper by Andrew Light and Julian Wong of the Center for American Progress (CAP), is part of a planned second stimulus package that is "dedicated solely to new energy development over the next decade, including generous investments in wind, solar and hydropower."  China is planning to make a sustained commitment to clean energy investment by building on the clean energy investments in their first stimulus package rather than being content with a one-time investment. 

China's massive clean energy investment plan is indeed "reported," or planned.  A top source for Breakthrough Institute's figures are analysts at CAP, who have repeatedly published the same figures, including recently in Congressional testimony.  These numbers were reported early by the AFP and have since been republished several times, including recently by the Washington Post in an article similar to Norris' and Jenkins' op-ed, titled "Asian Nations Could Outpace U.S. in Developing Clean Energy."

The Breakthrough Institute has never suggested that China's investment is centered solely around R&D, nor have we suggested that U.S. clean energy investments should be solely focused on R&D, despite Romm's ongoing effort to misrepresent our position, which strongly supports direct public deployment of clean energy technology (see here for a summary of Breakthrough's clean energy investment policy recommendations). 

Continue reading "Joe Romm Ignores Facts in Attacking Breakthrough Institute Op-Ed" »

"Will America lose the clean-energy race?"

That's the question Breakthrough Institute's Teryn Norris and Jesse Jenkins raise in an op ed featured in today's San Francisco Chronicle.

You can also read an extended version at the Huffington Post.

With China, South Korea and Japan all moving aggressively to corner the burgeoning global clean energy market, Asian competitors may dominate the clean energy sector if Congress doesn't act now to strengthen the Waxman-Markey bill with much larger investments in our own clean energy economy and fully support President Obama's energy education initiative, Norris and Jenkins argue.

Last week, over 100 organizations joined the Breakthrough Institute in urging the Senate to fund Obama's RE-ENERGYSE initiative, which would develop thousands of highly-skilled clean energy workers and new energy education programs around the country. The Senate is poised to cut the program to $0 from Obama's $115 million request at a time with the U.S. is severely lagging in energy science and technology education.

Read the RE-ENERGYSE letter press release and the New York Times Dot Earth coverage.

Monday's op-ed comes one year after Breakthrough proposed a similar National Energy Education Act, calling for an effort on par with the original National Defense Education Act of 1958, which invested billions each year to train and empower the young generation that won the space race and invented the technologies that catapulted the U.S. and the world into the Information Age.

It also comes two weeks after the Washington Post reported that "Asian Nations Could Outpace U.S. in Developing Clean Energy."

Breakthrough Institute is planning to release a full report on the USA-Asia clean energy race within the next few weeks, so stay tuned.

As President Obama put it in his Congressional address in February:

"We know the country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable energy will lead the 21st century. And yet it is China that has launched the largest effort in history to make their economy energy efficient... New plug-in hybrids roll off our assembly lines, but they will run on batteries made in Korea. Well I do not accept a future where the jobs and industries of tomorrow take root beyond our borders -- and I know you don't either. It is time for America to lead again."

President Obama is right. However, as Norris and Jenkins warn in today's op ed:

"If America does not take immediate action to bridge its energy education gap - and if we fail to make substantially larger investments in our own clean-energy economy - we will effectively cede the clean-energy race to Asia. A decade from now, we may still find the burgeoning clean-energy economy promised by Obama and Democratic leaders. It will simply be headquartered in China."

You can read the extended version of the op ed below...

Continue reading "Will America Lose the Clean Energy Race?" »

By James Burgess, Breakthrough Fellow

A recent study at NYU's Stern School of Business analyzes the returns on government energy R&D investments and comes to the conclusion that geothermal and wind power could, for a relatively low price, become cheaper than fossil fuel electricity in a matter of years.

The study used a well-known method of analyzing technology cycles that predicts learning curves for emerging technologies. This "S-curve" heuristic guesses that the performance of new technologies, plotted against effort (i.e. total money invested) is shaped like an S.

Early in the life of the technology, improvements are gradual as the basic properties are worked out and an effective design is formed. Next comes a period of rapid growth as the now-stable technology captures "process innovations" and economies of scale. Finally, the rate of improvement slows as the technology becomes mature and improvements become hampered by the dominant structure of the technology and its industry - until the potential emergence of a new competing technology with its own S-curve.

Although such an analysis makes some major simplifications, these S-curve cycles are well-documented throughout history in technologies as diverse as disk drives, steam engines, semiconductors, and automobiles (to name a few).

With the S-curve model in hand, the authors of the report sought to determine the curves of some major alternative energy technologies in order to project how much investment is necessary to reduce the their marginal costs.

Continue reading "Study: Geothermal Could be Cost-Competitive for a Fraction of Oil and Coal's R&D Investments" »

By Daniel Spitzburg, Breakthrough Fellow. Crossposted from the Breakthrough Generation Blog

Over 100 universities, student groups, and professional associations signed a letter drafted by the Breakthrough Institute that was delivered Tuesday to the U.S. Senate calling for full funding of President Obama's RE-ENERGYSE energy education initiative, Andy Revkin reports today at the NY Times' Dot Earth.

RE-ENERGYSE, a program aimed at 'REgaining our ENERGY Science and Engineering Edge', was given $7 million by the House appropriations bill and $0 by the Senate Appropriations Committee, embarrassingly shy of $115 million requested in the President's FY2010 budget. The proposal was sent back to the DOE with a request to distinguish between current and potential future programmatic efforts (according to ScienceInsider). In other words, it was rejected.

Revkin asked the White House about the funding cut and Kenneth Baer at the Office of Management and Budget sent him this reply:

"The appropriations process is ongoing, and we look forward to working with Congress to make sure there is the needed funding to prepare our students for the jobs of the growing clean energy sector."

The sign-on letter will hopefully boost the Administration's efforts, as it summarizes the clear need for new energy education funding and demonstrates a broad constituency in supportive of such a program.

For specifics, read the letter or the press release.

Motivated in part by its loss of dominance in the solar energy
industry, Japan has recently announced a new national project for the
widespread deployment of solar PV technologies in order to drive the
price of solar energy toward that of conventional energy sources.  In
short, Japan plans to make solar energy cheap.

In a speech laying out the his strategy for Japan to lead the world
in a "low carbon revolution", Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso announced
his vision for Japan to be "the number one solar power in the world." 
He also recognized that the principle barrier to widespread adoption of
solar energy was its high price:

How do we become number one in the world in terms of solar power generation? In order to achieve this, we must put an end to the following vicious cycle: costs are high because of lack of demand, and demand remains stagnant due to high costs. Above all else, I think a strong political will to create 'demand through policies,' is necessary.

In order to cut this vicious cycle, Japan has proposed to make solar energy cheap through a combination of energy innovation and government policies to spur demand-a straightforward and effective approach to drive both economies of scale and potentially transformative innovation.  Prime Minister Aso has set a goal of increasing installed solar capacity by 20 times its current level by 2020, and 40 times by 2030.

Continue reading "Japan Plans to Make Solar Energy Cheap" »

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
July 22, 2009

PRESS CONTACT:
Jesse Jenkins (510-550-8930 x465 or 503-333-1737)
jesse@thebreakthrough.org
Teryn Norris (510-550-8930 x464 or 510-593-3716)
teryn@thebreakthrough.org

A group of over 100 universities, professional associations, and student groups joined the Breakthrough Institute Tuesday in submitting a letter urging the U.S. Senate to fully support the Obama administration's national energy education initiative. The initiative, named "RE-ENERGYSE" (REgaining our ENERGY Science and Engineering Edge), would produce thousands of highly-skilled U.S. energy workers and develop new energy education programs at American universities and K-12 schools.

The Senate is poised to reject the proposal in its FY2010 Energy and Water Development Appropriations bill by cutting the RE-ENERGYSE program's funding to $0 from the $115 million requested in President Obama's FY2010 budget. Mr. Obama announced the initiative in a speech to the National Academy of Sciences in April, stating, "The nation that leads the world in 21st century clean energy will be the nation that leads in the 21st century global economy... [RE-ENERGYSE] will prepare a generation of Americans to meet this generational challenge."

According to the Department of Energy, the program would develop between 5,000 and 8,500 highly educated scientists, engineers, and other professionals to enter the clean energy field by 2015, which would rise to 10,000 -17,000 professionals by 2020. The Technical Training and K-12 Education subprogram would create between 200 to 300 community college and other training programs to prepare thousands of technically skilled workers for clean energy jobs.

The letter, which was distributed to every Senate office on Tuesday, urged lawmakers to fund RE-ENERGYSE at the full $115 million request. "America is in danger of losing its global competitiveness and the [global] clean energy race without substantial new investments in STEM education," wrote the signatories, which included 53 colleges and universities and dozens of student and youth groups. "RE-ENERGYSE... will train America's future energy workforce, accelerate our transition to a prosperous clean energy economy, and ensure that we lead the world's burgeoning clean technology industries."

Continue reading "PRESS RELEASE: Over 100 Groups Urge Congress to Support Obama's Energy Education Initiative" »

By Leigh Ewbank, Breakthrough Fellow

This week marks the 40th anniversary of Neil Armstrong's moonwalk, the event which made the US the first and only nation to accomplish one of the greatest technological feats in human history. While space-race aficionados will argue that US-Soviet competition continued beyond the 1969 moon landing, for the layperson, Armstrong's 'small step' marked the end of the space race.

In 2009, the United States faces a new global competition, one that will have far greater implications for the future of our nation and the world: the clean energy race

The dual challenges of climate change and increased economic competitiveness are driving nations to develop new energy technologies that harness earth's abundant renewable resources. This technology is increasingly viewed as central to our economic fortunes with renewable energy and other clean technologies poised to be the next big growth sector. On several occasions President Obama has acknowledged that:

'The nation that leads the world in creating new sources of clean energy will be the nation that leads the 21st century global economy.'

We've heard calls for a New Apollo project for renewable energy before, and I will not discuss the merits of such a scheme here. Instead, on this historic anniversary, I will compare the space race of the Cold War era and the clean energy race of today--both similarities and differences are apparent, and both offer insights into America's current standing in today's clean energy race.

Continue reading "40th Anniversary of the Moon Landing - Lessons for the Clean Energy Race" »

By Johanna Peace, Breakthrough Fellow

With this week's letter urging Obama to ensure "stable support" for a Clean Energy Technology Fund in the climate bill currently before the Senate, America's top scientists and energy experts signaled that the scientific community will hold Obama to his promise of investing $150 billion in clean energy research and development.

The names on the letter represent a virtual who's who of the upper echelons of the American scientific community, led by former Federation of American Scientists Board Chairman Burton Richter. Its supporters include Dan Reicher, director of climate change and energy initiatives at Google, former special assistant to the Energy Secretary during the Clinton administration, and a former candidate for Energy Secretary under Obama.

These science and energy experts are insisting that the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES) be strengthened from its current form, which would invest just one-fifteenth of the $15 billion per year Obama pledges for clean energy R&D in his current policy plans. "This is a serious deficiency," the letter warns.

Continue reading "Will Obama Break His $150 Billion Promise?" »

By Yael Borofsky, Breakthrough Fellow

As Congress debates the Waxman-Markey climate bill, Asia is moving rapidly to win the clean energy race. So warns a new article in the Washington Post today that should serve as a wake-up call to America's leadership at the highest level.

The new investigative article by Steven Mufson, entitled "Asian Nations Could Outpace U.S. in Developing Clean Energy," confirms increasingly urgent warnings issued by many, including the Breakthrough Institute, that the United States must dramatically increase direct investments in a clean energy technology push, or be quickly left behind by China, South Korea, India, Japan and others.

Despite Obama's intentions to increase America's international competitiveness, the article reports that the amount and scale of investments in renewable energy programs coupled with ambitious renewable energy use targets are putting these Asian nations on pace to surpass programs set forth by both the U.S. economic stimulus package and the American Clean Energy and Security Act, the massive climate and energy bill recently passed by the U.S. House of Representatives.

Citing Breakthrough's Jesse Jenkins, the article warns:

"If the Waxman-Markey climate bill is the United States' entry into the clean energy race, we'll be left in the dust by Asia's clean-tech tigers," said Jesse Jenkins, director of energy and climate policy at the Breakthrough Institute, an Oakland, Calif.-based think tank that favors massive government spending to address global warming.

Much of the G8 climate discussions last week were stymied by China and India's outright refusal to accept an international (or any) ceiling on greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports, both countries, as well as South Korea, are forging ahead with dramatic steps to ramp up their renewable industries in ways that will reduce their emissions while flexing their strengthening clean-tech R&D muscles.

The full article can be read below...

Continue reading "Washington Post: Asia's Clean Tech Tigers Surging Ahead in Clean Energy Race" »

In a letter submitted to President Obama today, a group of 34 prominent Nobel Prize recipients decried the lack of clear support in "The American Clean Energy and Security Act" (ACES) for the President's own promise to establish a Clean Energy Technology Fund of $150 billion over the course of ten years. The Nobelists, including many of the world's most prominent physical scientists, are calling on Congress and the President to ensure the climate and energy bill currently being debated by the Senate includes adequate and sustained support for clean energy innovation.

This letter represents the best and the brightest of the American science community, and echoes a call long issued by the Breakthrough Institute for large investment in clean energy (see "Letter to Obama & Congress: $30 billion Annually Needed for Energy Technology" and "Top Energy Scientists Call for $30 Bi Annual Investment in Clean Energy").

Continue reading "34 Nobel Prize Winners Write President Obama Urging Support for Clean Energy R&D" »

In 2009 forget Copenhagen and in 2010 forget South Africa. It is Mexico 2010 where the action will be according to the latest expectations-lowering/setting from the Obama Administration, from Platts:

Jonathan Pershing, the US deputy special envoy for climate change, on Monday downplayed hopes that UN-led talks set to conclude in December in Copenhagen will result in a final climate change agreement. "[The talks] won't fail, but [they] will likely be inadequate," Pershing said in remarks to the Committee on America's Climate Choices in Washington. Congress last year directed the National Academy of Science to establish the committee to investigate issues related to climate change and make recommendations about possible responses. The panel is scheduled to release four reports this year and a final report sometime in 2010.

Pershing told the group that although there is great deal of political pressure to accomplish something from the talks, the reality will be that the components and analysis of any results will be left for the next UN-led meeting, set for 2010 and possibly held in Mexico. Recommendations from Copenhagen will provide "real space for doing an agreement," he said.

Written by Breakthrough Fellow, Leigh Ewbank. Originally published by On Line Opinion - Australia's e-Journal of social and political debate:

Last week marked the 60th anniversary of the momentous Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Power Act - the first step in a 25-year journey to modernise our nation. Unrivalled in its ambition, the Snowy Mountains Scheme would meet the dual objectives of providing reliable electricity for our cities and towns, and water supplies to sustain food production along the Murray River.

Australia's largest-ever engineering project would spur social and economic development and benefit the cities and rural communities of Australia's southeast for generations. Without fanfare or media attention, Australia forgot to acknowledge a significant moment in our nation's history.

Today Australia faces new challenges: our climate is changing. And we must quickly transition to a clean energy economy to avoid the worst-case scenarios predicted by climate scientists. Alongside this comes the continued global economic change that is putting increased pressure on established industries. Our parliament must act to encourage the expansion of new industries and secure jobs for the future.

A new nation-building project on the scale of the Snowy Mountains Scheme is needed.

Continue reading "Snowy Mountain Scheme for the 21st century" »

I was interviewed on a radio show this morning about our new climate "super lobby" analysis with Burt Cohen, former State Senator from New Hampshire and host of the radio show Port Side:

Download the mp3 file here

Our "super lobby" analysis is available here:
Climate Bill Analysis Part 19: ACES Could Align Economic Interests to Weaken Climate Legislation

Our AlterNet oped on the analysis is here:
The New Energy Bill May Create a 'Super Lobby' of Powerful Opposition

You can follow my updates at www.twitter.com/TerynNorris

By Teryn Norris
Originally published by AlterNet
July 8, 2009

The recent passage of the American Clean Energy & Security Act (ACES) through the U.S. House of Representatives drew different reactions from climate and environmental advocates. But one key perspective shared by most advocates is that, despite its weaknesses, the bill is a good first step. ACES builds a solid foundation for future progress on U.S. climate mitigation, the argument goes, and climate advocates will be well-positioned to strengthen the legislation in years ahead.

But what are the prospects for strengthening ACES in future years? This question is subject to many uncertainties, depending on the vagaries of the political climate. But a closer examination reveals that ACES could create a "super-lobby" of interest groups that will significantly diminish the possibility of achieving future reforms.

The newest climate lobby -- and potentially one of the most powerful in years to come -- is the financial industry. If ACES is signed into law, the global carbon market could become the largest commodity market in the world. According to Bart Chilton, Commissioner of the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), "The potential size and scope of a structured carbon emissions market in the US is unequivocally vast. It is certainly possible that the emissions markets could overtake all other commodity markets."

Continue reading "New Climate Bill Could Create "Super Lobby" Against U.S. Emissions Reductions" »

By Devon Swezey, Breakthrough Fellow

[Update, 7/13/09: On July 9th, the Senate Appropriations Committee voted to completely zero out all funding for President Obama's RE-ENERGYSE energy education program.]

President Obama's national energy education program designed to create a generation of clean energy innovators has been cut from $115 to $7 million by a House subcommittee. The cuts could mean that fewer than 100 scholarships, not 1,500 scholarships, will be available annually.

Energy analysts say that one of the key barriers to developing clean energy technologies that can compete with fossil fuels is the lack of scholarships both for young scientists to do basic research and for engineers seeking to apply discoveries in the real world.

The Administration's energy education program, called RE-ENERGYSE (REgaining our ENERGY Science and Engineering Edge), would have resulted in "the development of leading edge undergraduate and graduate programs and between 5,000 and 8,500 highly educated scientists, engineers, and other professionals to enter the clean energy field by 2015; and approximately 10,000 to 17,000 professionals by 2020," according to the Department of Energy (DOE).  The initiative, which would be jointly supported by DOE and the National Science Foundation, was modeled after the Breakthrough Institute's National Energy Education Act proposal and would have been the largest federal initiative to focus exclusively on clean energy education.

President Obama announced the initiative as a way to "inspire the next generation of clean energy innovators", similar to the way that the launch of Sputnik and the space race inspired young people to pursue careers in science and engineering in the 1950s and 60s. In 1958, the government passed the National Defense Education Act (NDEA), which provided billions of dollars over 4 years to train a new generation of scientists to help America compete with the Soviet Union in scientific and technical fields. But in recent years, the number of science and technology professionals has been declining as a share of the labor force, a development that has education experts worried.

Continue reading "House and Senate Committees Cut Funding for Obama's Energy Education Initiative" »

This analysis was also covered in an op-ed at AlterNet. Breakthrough Institute's full collection of ACES analyses is here.

New analysis by the Breakthrough Institute concludes that the American Clean Energy & Security Act (ACES) could create a vast new carbon derivatives market subject to financial speculation and create a powerful alignment of economic incentives among the financial industry, carbon offset producers, and utilities and fossil fuel companies to weaken or oppose measures to reduce emissions in capped U.S. sectors.

Offset Industry & Utilities

The ACES bill would create new demand for domestic and international carbon offsets by allowing polluters to purchase these relatively cheap offsets in lieu of reducing their emissions. The bill allows for the purchase of 1 billion tons of domestic offsets and 1 billion tons of international offsets each year.

The use of offsets to meet emissions reduction targets has significant implications when evaluating the impacts of ACES. Offset utilization is one of the largest variables in the proposal determining both economy-wide emissions reductions and reductions in capped sectors of the economy, established carbon prices, revenues raised through auctioning allowances and revenues dedicated to clean energy, levels of private investment in clean energy driven by the program, and the revenues transferred from households and other domestic energy end-users to international interests through offset purchases.

How many of these offsets will be utilized is uncertain, however, if all offsets are utilized and purchased at the average allowance price estimated by EPA, the bill would create a domestic offset industry with annual sales of $20 billion per year by 2020. The profit margin on the sale of such offsets is also uncertain, but total profit from domestic offset production is likely to range in the billions of dollars each year. Below is a table estimating total potential sales compared to projections by the EPA (see here) and CBO (see here) on the utilization of offsets through 2020 (value estimates based on EPA price projection of $15/allowance in 2012 and $20/allowance in 2020):

Continue reading "Climate Bill Analysis Part 19: ACES Could Align Economic Interests to Weaken Climate Legislation" »

By Leigh Ewbank, Breakthrough Fellow

A joint London School of Economics / University of Oxford report published today presents a new approach to post-Kyoto climate change policy. The report, How to Get Climate Policy Back on Course, coincides with this week's G8 summit and Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, and calls on policy makers to abandon the failed Kyoto-style framework and instead focus directly on decarbonizing global energy systems.

The new report builds on Professor Gwyn Prins' and Professor Steve Rayner's influential critique of the Kyoto Protocol, The Wrong Trousers: Radically Rethinking Climate Policy, and adds further weight to calls to scrap Kyoto.

Continue reading "How to Get Climate Policy Back on Course: New Report Proposes Post-Kyoto Framework for Copenhagen" »

By Johanna Peace, Breakthrough Fellow

While the US mires itself in controversy over the weakened cap-and-trade bill working its way through Congress, China and India have begun to look ahead with new government investment policies that rapidly expand solar power capacity in each country.

China recently announced a dramatic increase in its expected solar capacity target for 2011, planning to reach 2 GW within the next two years. Already, China has expanded its 2020 target from 1.8 GW to 20 GW-that's more than triple the amount of PV solar power installed in the entire world during 2008, the industry's best year ever. (Since details of China's planned $440-$660 billion renewable energy stimulus package have not yet been released, the precise figure for China's new 2020 solar target remains uncertain. Some Chinese reports put the number at 20 GW, while other experts say this is an upper-bound of estimate of what China expects to achieve with its new massive investments in renewable technology.)

Continue reading "China and India Launch New Solar Energy Projects" »

By Johanna Peace, with Leigh Ewbank and Devon Swezey, Breakthrough Fellows

Historically, the United States has been the nation with the capacity and determination for large-scale investments in promising new technologies--but not this time. Now it's China's turn. In the coming weeks, China will unveil an unprecedented multi-billion dollar investment in renewable energy.

The details are sketchy, but China is reportedly developing a massive renewable energy investment plan. While little is known about the precise level of expenditure the Chinese will commit to research, development and deployment (RD&D), if it's anywhere between the US $440-660 billion over ten years reported by AFP and the Center for American Progress then it'll be an unprecedented investment in the new energy economy.

What Do We Know About China's Investment Plan?

A Chinese Energy Administration official has confirmed that the investments will number at least $440 billion over 10 years. However, there is still uncertainty about the range of investments and the date when the Chinese Government's renewable energy plan will be revealed. A report by the state-run news service Xinhua identified China's top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission, as responsible for drafting and implementing the plan. According to Shi Dinghuan of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, NDRC has already produced a draft of the renewable energy stimulus, though Breakthrough research has turned up no publicly available copy.

Continue reading "China's Big Plan to Win the Clean Energy Race" »

By Johanna Peace, Devon Swezey, and Leigh Ewbank, Breakthrough Fellows

It's official: India won't accept binding caps on its emissions of greenhouse gases. Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh made the case clear last Thursday:

"India will not accept any emission-reduction target--period," Ramesh said. "This is a non-negotiable stand."

India's announcement is the latest frustrating news for those following the efforts of climate negotiators as they struggle to eke out an international agreement by this December's UN summit in Copenhagen. It's frustrating because the fundamental dissonance between what developed countries demand and what developing countries are willing to give appears to be the single most intractable roadblock standing in the way of a successful treaty. In fact, this very problem has impeded progress on international climate negotiations for decades.

Continue reading "Road to Copenhagen: The Need for a New Framework" »

By Johanna Peace, Breakthrough Fellow

This week, South Korea has upped the ante for green public investment as it continues to make swift progress toward becoming a clean-tech economy. Already, a staggering 80% of South Korea's $38 billion stimulus package has been earmarked for green investments.

And today, the South Korean government announced that it will invest $85 billion more over 5 years to encourage the growth of green industries and technologies. That's more than doubling South Korea's recent promise to invest $40 billion over five years in a "Green New Deal," and the equivalent of 2% of the East Asian nation's total GDP. If the United States were to invest a comparable share of it's national wealth in clean energy technology, the sum would total over $275 billion annually.

Continue reading "South Korea to Invest $85 billion in Green New Deal" »

By Johanna Peace, Breakthrough Fellow

By mid-July, China will begin construction of a massive wind farm project in the northwestern Gansu province, at a total cost of US $17.6 billion. It will be China's biggest wind power station yet; according to local Development and Reform Commission official Wu Shengxue, it will reach an installed capacity of 20 GW by 2020. Eventually, the wind power capacity of the area is projected to reach 40 GW.

This development is the latest in what has recently been a major push by the Chinese to expand renewable energy use. Soon, Chinese officials are expected to reveal a new renewable energy stimulus plan of US $44-$66 billion per year over ten years, which will focus much of its resources on wind power. Under the plan, China will be on track to reach 100 GW of wind power capacity by 2020--more than eight times its current level.

By contrast, the American Clean Energy and Security Act invests only $6-12 billion per year in clean energy. As for the US "green stimulus," it includes a one-time clean energy spending boost of $112 billion--just half of China's $221 billion stimulus investment in green initiatives. Here's a sense of scale: If US investments in clean energy were on par with the Chinese in terms of percent GDP, we'd be spending $140-210 billion per year.

Continue reading "China to Build World's Largest Wind Project" »

"As it stands now, the amount of money dedicated to coal in [the Waxman-Markey climate] bill is remarkable, and the future of coal will be intact."

-Phil Smith, communications director, United Mine Workers of America union [via Coal Tattoo]

"There is no way India is going to accept any emission reduction target, period, between now and the Copenhagen meeting and thereafter... India will not accept any emission-reduction target -- period. This is a non-negotiable stand."

--Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh, June 30, 2009 (Bloomberg News)