On January 21st, immediately after assuming office, Barack Obama's first priority will be passing an economic stimulus package that will provide the economic kick-in-the-pants necessary to avoid the next Great Depression. There's nearly unanimous consensus that a major stimulus investment is needed to stave off economic disaster. How the next administration plans to fit this stimulus into a larger economic revitalization plan, however, is still unclear.

So far, there's plenty of focus on traditional methods of stimulus: tax cuts to spur consumer spending and traditional infrastructure investments to rebuild roads and bridges. Unfortunately, a short-term focus on roads and rebates won't be enough to stave off a new depression or put our economy back on track. Instead, we must focus on investments that can both act as short-term stimulus and improve the long-term productivity of the US economy. And that means investing in innovation.

As Janet Rae-Dupree wrote in the New York Times on Saturday:

Continue reading "Forget Roads and Rebates: Why the Stimulus Should Invest in Innovation and Productivity" »

The New York Times editorial board, including respected environmental writer Bob Semple, broke from its past focus on carbon pricing as the primary solution to climate change in an editorial about Obama's newly announced energy and climate team. The piece praised Energy Secretary-designate Dr. Steven Chu for his views on the climate challenge:

"What sets [Chu] apart is his fierce conviction that innovation is just as important as regulation, and that big energy problems, like climate change and the world's dependency on fossil fuels, will not be solved without major private and public investment in the development and deployment of nonpolluting technologies."

Continue reading "The Times, it is a-Changin'" »

The New York Times ran a landmark article today, "Money and Lobbyists Hurt European Efforts to Curb Gases," about the failure of cap and trade in Europe. It should be required reading for anyone concerned about climate change policy in the United States and abroad.  It opens with this:

The European Union started with a high-minded ecological goal: encouraging companies to cut their greenhouse gases by making them pay for each ton of carbon dioxide they emitted into the atmosphere.

But that plan unleashed a lobbying free-for-all that led politicians to dole out favors to various industries, undermining the environmental goals. Four years later, it is becoming clear that system has so far produced little noticeable benefit to the climate -- but generated a multibillion-dollar windfall for some of the Continent's biggest polluters.

As President-elect Barack Obama considers how to curb the gases that contribute to global warming, Europe's struggle with the problem illustrates the momentous task ahead for the United States.

The piece comes after the GAO just released a highly critical study of the use of offsets in Europe's Emissions Trading Scheme and amidst the chaotic climate negotiations at Poznan, where several European nations are balking at strict emissions caps.  It also comes only a few weeks after President-elect Barack Obama pledged his support for cap and trade at a major climate conference in California.

Continue reading "NY Times Reports Failure of Cap & Trade" »

Last week in response to Michael and Ted's piece in The American Prospect, Bradford Plumer at The New Republic's "The Vine" wrote a piece called "Should We Forget About Carbon Pricing? (No.)" The post, which mischaracterizes the stances Michael and Ted take in the Prospect piece, also propagates the myth of successful emissions reductions in Europe.

Plumer writes:

"Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger have yet another essay arguing that environmentalists should abandon all hope of trying to cap or tax carbon emissions, and instead focus solely on subsidizing clean-energy sources if they want to avert drastic global warming.

...Simply having the Energy Department dole out $50 billion per year to clean-energy producers (as Nordhaus and Shellenberger suggest) will pale beside the amount of private-sector money that will flow to alternative energy and efficiency improvements if carbon is priced properly."

This characterization of S&N's positions in The American Prospect and the Breakthrough Institute in general is a strawman.

Continue reading "In "Vine" Veritas? (No.)" »

Representative Henry Waxman of California defeated Representative John Dingell of Michigan in the battle for the gavel of the influential House Energy and Commerce Committee today.

Over the past two weeks, the two senior Democrats waged one of the most hotly contested challenges for committee chairmanship in recent Congressional history. Waxman was announced the victor today after a 137-122 vote of the full House Democratic Caucus, ending Dingell's nearly 28 year reign as Chair of the committee, which has jurisdiction over several key issues, including energy, interstate commerce and health care.

Continue reading "Waxman Bests Dingell in Contest Over Influential House Committee" »

In 2005, with GM and Ford teetering perilously close to bankruptcy, the Breakthrough Institute created the Healthcare for Hybrids proposal with Senator Barack Obama, Representative Jay Inslee, and the Center for American Progress, a plan which would have linked fuel-economy increases to relieving health care costs for U.S. automakers. Today, with the industry again on the brink of collapse, we invite you to join us is exploring a new question for the new era:

What will it take to reinvent the American auto industry?

We will publish the best responses on our home page, www.thebreakthrough.org. Please submit your op-eds to oped@thebreakthrough.org and paste or type your content into the body of the message; please do not send attachments.

Continue reading "Can America Reinvent the Auto Industry?" »

The good news: an elite consensus is crystallizing around the need for massive economic stimulus funded by deficit spending. Hundreds of economists are calling for stimulus on the scale of 2-3 percent of GDP -- or $300-500 billion per year, equivalent to the expected decline in U.S. consumption as a result of the housing market collapse -- to confront the recession head-on.

The bad news: this growing consensus may only support short-term stimulus investments - such as aid to state and local governments, extended unemployment benefits, and rebate checks - without any long-term economic strategy. Infrastructure spending is gaining support, but mostly for proposals that have already been planned and scheduled. Given the increasingly dim prospects for long-term U.S. competitiveness, it's critical that we think smart and act quickly to secure our economic future. As Harvard Business School guru Michael Porter put it in last week's BusinessWeek cover story:

Continue reading "America Needs a New Growth Strategy" »

This week, we've been writing about President-elect Barack Obama's powerful mandate to build a new, clean energy economy and revitalize our nation's ailing economy. A new post-election poll from Zogby Interactive confirms that Americans overwhelmingly view new investments in clean energy as critical to revitalizing America's ailing economy.

The poll found that more than three out of four voters - 78% - support clean energy investments to revitalize the economy, with 50% saying they strongly agree that clean energy investment is vital to the nation's economic future.

Continue reading "Post-election Poll Confirms Bipartisan Support for Barack Obama's Clean Energy Plans" »

This is the second post in a continuing series delving into Barack Obama's opportunity to capture this political moment and provide a direction for energy policy and economic growth in the 21st century. Part 1 is here.

As Barack Obama assumes the mantle of President-elect of the United States of America, we are witnessing an historic realignment of the American political landscape. With the election of our nation's first African-American president, record voter turnout, and a dramatically redrawn electoral map, it seems that anything is possible now.

However, while Obama clearly has a new mandate to lead our nation, electoral mandates are fickle and even this one could fade in time. President-elect Obama has just 76 days to prepare for his inauguration. Then the real work of governing will begin, and what Obama decides to do in his first 100 days will either cement or erase the wave of popular support the President-elect rides today.

His job won't be easy. On January 20th, President-elect Obama will inherit the White House along with a plethora of pressing challenges all competing for his attention. There will be no time for baby steps, and President Obama must show bold and effective leadership right out of the gate. Furthermore, while the economic crisis will remain his top concern in the short-run, Obama cannot afford to ignore longer-term challenges and must develop synergistic solutions that can tackle multiple problems at once.

Thankfully, Barack Obama has stated that building a new energy economy will be his top priority upon assuming office. If he fully integrates this effort with his shorter-term economic stimulus plans, Obama could effectively tackle several priorities - economy recovery, energy security, and global warming - simultaneously. And getting this job done right could cement Obama's electoral mandate and pave the way for a truly transcendent presidency.

Continue reading "President-elect Barack Obama's New Energy Mandate, Part 2" »

By Jesse Jenkins and Adam Zemel

The election of Barack Obama, an African American liberal with a Muslim middle name, will be remembered for generations as a historic moment in American history. Made possible by the financial crisis and economic recession, President-elect Obama will enter the White House in January of next year with a mandate to take bold action to revive the global economy and put American on the path to economic greatness.

It's hard to believe today, but back in early September, it looked like Barack Obama would lose. Senator John McCain was pulling away in national tracking polls as the chant, "Drill, Baby, Drill!" echoed across the nation. Record high gas prices were the top issue of the campaign, and as Republicans' united around a clear, powerful (yet disingenuous) call for expanded oil drilling, Democrats, including Obama, fumbled for a response.

Continue reading "The Obama Mandate and the 21st Century" »

It has taken astoundingly little time for elite consensus to build around the federal deficit. Those who don't actively advocate deficit spending like Robert Reich have at least agreed that now is not the time to try and shrink the deficit. With the financial sector close to collapse, unemployment rising and credit frozen, it has become increasingly important for the government to continue to spend, not only to extend unemployment insurance, but also for things like the bailout and a second round of economic stimulus.

In fact, some organizations whose core principle is to advocate for a balanced federal budget have even ceded the point:

Continue reading "Will Consensus for Deficit Spending Include the Technology 16?" »

I know it's hard to remember, given the events of the past weeks, but back before Wall Street was burning, Main Street was already feeling the heat from another very real economic crisis: the soaring price of oil.

The credit crisis and our slowing economy have driven oil prices down from historic highs. As stocks plummeted in the past two weeks, so to did the price of crude, falling by more than half, down from it's July record of over $140 to under $70 this week. That's the lowest price in fourteen months, but it's still three times higher than it was just six years ago, and prices are still over $3.00 a gallon across the nation.

Still, as prices at the pump have receded and the focus on the banking bailout bumped "Drill Baby, Drill!" out of the presidential election spotlight, the energy crisis is now out of most of our minds. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean the threat - to our economy and our quality of life - is gone. Oil prices will rise again - they are already inching up again amidst news of a likely OPEC cutback in production - and when they do, they'll continue to drag down our struggling economy. If we ever hope to see real economic recovery, we would be wise not to forget the other crisis that contributed to today's ailing economy.

I'll delve into this more next week, but for now, enjoy the new article in this weekend's New York Times Magazine (online here) by Roger Lowenstein, entitled "What's Really Wrong With the Price of Oil," which takes a close look at the temporarily forgotten but very real threat oil prices pose to our economic wellbeing. Excerpts below the fold...

Continue reading "Remember That Other Economic Crisis?" »

Eric Pooley's recent piece in Slate, "Save the Economy, Save the Planet," sparked a lot of discussion and thought here at Breakthrough. Pooley is right that climate advocates would be best served finding a "Trojan horse" to advance climate solutions within an economic recovery framework. But his recommendations that the next president advance a cap and trade program sparked both my response, "Can Cap and Dividend Really Save the Economy or the Planet?" and a round table discussion with several climate and policy experts on the opportunities and challenges for new U.S. administration.

I invited Pooley to respond to my post, which was highly critical of the political chances of a Cap and Dividend scheme in today's political and economic climate. Below the fold you'll find our continued dialog on the political challenges and opportunities facing climate advocates in the coming year.

Continue reading "Cap and Trade Isn't the Only Game In Town - Continued Dialog with Eric Pooley" »

In response to Michael and Ted's op-ed in the LA Times, the New Republic's environment and energy blog, The Vine published a post entitled, "The Green Bubble Hasn't Burst," by Dayo Olopade. This piece misses the thrust of Ted and Michael's argument, and, in an effort to counter it, proves them right.

Working backwards, my first objections with this post come at the end:

"I've argued that the derided June bill [the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act], which won 48 votes in the Senate, was clearly a two steps forward, one step back situation, and a good step forward at that."

Continue reading "Two Steps Forward, Twelve Steps Back" »

The economy is all that matters now, and climate advocates - and the next President - would be wise to develop a strategic "Trojan horse" to advance their ecological goals within the framework of economic recovery. That's the thesis of "Save the Economy, Save the Planet," an article appearing in Slate last week by Eric Pooley. 

Pooley gets the political analysis right, accurately diagnosing the potentially incurable political malady that dooms the chances of expansive carbon regulation in today's economic climate.  But when it comes time to prescribe the remedy, Pooley is off-the-mark, arguing that a Cap and Dividend proposal is just what the doctor ordered. 

Sorry, but that's the wrong answer.  Unfortunately, Pooley is not alone in his prescribed solution, and it's time we took a close look at the obstacles to climate action and see just how far Cap and Dividend gets us (hint: it's not very far...)

Continue reading "Can Cap and Dividend Really Save the Economy or the Planet?" »

By Breakthrough Senior Fellow Roger Pielke, jr., cross posted from Prometheus

Yesterday's E&E News PM (subscription) has an interesting article about a new poll out on U.S. view of climate change, sponsored by a set of environmental groups and consultants. It supports many arguments that we have made here at Prometheus, such as the fact that support for action on climate change is broad but shallow, the public generally accepts a significant human role in climate change, and Al Gore has played a big role in making the issue partisan (an even more interesting finding because Gore's Alliance for Climate Protection is a sponsor of the poll). I don't have the poll yet, but have requested it. Meantime, here is an excerpt from the E&E News PM story:

Continue reading "New Poll Finds Shallow Support for Climate Action, Partisan Split" »

A group of moderate Senate Democrats are joining forces to take the lead in climate legislation next year. We originally dubbed the group the "Technology Ten" in June, when the centrist Democrats sent a letter (pdf) to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Environment Committee Chair Barbara Boxer indicating their reservations about the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act that had just been voted down on the Senate floor.

The groups' concerns revolved around the effect of expansive climate change legislation on energy prices, and hence on energy consumers, businesses and manufacturing and the letter centered around the need for stronger cost-containment measures and greater investment in technology innovation and deployment -- hence the moniker "Technology Ten." That group has now grown to include sixteen Democratic senators, and they are redoubling their efforts to take charge of the global warming debate next year, according to a recent article in E&E Daily (via Climate Progress; $ubs required for E&E Daily).

Given the fact that the new gang of senators represents almost one third of the Democratic caucus in the Senate, the "Technology Sixteen" will be a force to be reckoned with in the coming year.

Continue reading "Technology Ten Grows to Sixteen Members, Set to Take Charge of Climate Legislation in 2009" »

Next January there will be a new President and Congress, and the American public will have at least a somewhat better idea of the success or failure of the bailout that passed last week. A multiplicity of variables, from the state of our economy, to the outcome of the election, to the nuclear program of Iran will affect the American political landscape heading into 2009. Over the next few months, tons of organizations and movements will begin to take stock of how these shifting variables might affect their missions and objectives. Few could benefit from this self-evaluation more than groups demanding federal action on climate change. The long time standard of these organizations, cap-and-trade, is becoming increasingly less relevant to today's political world.

The quest for a carbon price by these green groups met abject failure back in June with the failure of Lieberman Warner. As energy prices rise, our economy stumbles and credit shrinks, it seems less and less likely that hard caps on carbon will be a viable political vehicle. Carbon pricing orthodoxy has run headlong into political and economic realities in at least three major ways.

Continue reading "What Killed Carbon-Pricing?" »

By passing a bill left for dead just weeks ago, today the U.S. House of Representatives decided the country actually ought to keep its burgeoning clean energy industry. But they didn't really mean to. The Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind, the biomass/solar/hydropower PTC, and solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) got their one-, two- and eight-year extensions, respectively. But they only got passed by being strapped to today's bailout bill, as a "sweetener" to aid its passage.

So how, exactly, does the key federal policy supporting new energy become just another packet of Splenda slipped into a murky, half-caff bailout bill?

Continue reading "Staying Alive" »

Joe Romm, who runs the Climate Progress blog, has launched another set of hysterical attacks on the Breakthrough Institute, comparing Michael and Ted to Karl Rove for their latest LA Times op-ed.

Continue reading "Despite claims, climate ranks low on public priorities" »

Politico and E&E News both report that the Senate Gang of 10 20 agreed to punt on their "all of the above" energy proposal until after the election. With the election looming and energy policy taking center stage in the run up to November 4th, partisan politics are too heated to advance any real compromise, a spokesman for Senator Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), one of the group's leaders told E&E ($ub req.)

"The thinking here is that the partisanship in Congress is stifling the debate we need to have on this. It is just too close to the presidential elections," said spokesman [for Sen. Conrad], Chris Thorne. Instead, Thorne said, the group plans to release a "statement of understanding" next week and then push actual legislation at a later time.

Continue reading "Senate "Gang of 20" Punts Amid Heated Partisan Politics" »

On September 25th, power companies with carbon emitting plants in ten states up the northeast (Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont and Maine), along with financial institutions, environmental and other groups will participate in the first Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative auction for carbon credits. This regional cap-and-trade program will go into effect on January 1st of next year, holding carbon emissions to 188 million tons annually until 2014, and then scaling emissions back 2.5 percent every year until 2018.

However, it seems that the forces behind RGGI have learned little from Europe's three year old Emission Trading Scheme. Unlike the ETS, RGGI will be auctioning almost all permits, instead of issuing the vast majority, as the ETS did. However, RGGI has its own pitfalls. The cap of 188 million tons was set in 2004, based on projections by energy experts and political pressure from utilities to keep the cap at or above current emissions levels. However, the projected 188 million tons was based on assumptions that carbon emissions would increase, but after 2006 they actually began to decrease due to more mild weather and a slowing economy.

Continue reading "RGGI DOA " »

The energy battle unfolding in the halls of Congress carries one clear lesson: energy prices and economic insecurity present a profoundly more powerful political imperative than calls for environmental protection and climate action. Rising gas prices and plummeting stock prices have dramatically altered the political landscape around energy, creating a pivotal moment for clean energy and climate advocates.

Republicans successfully capitalized on the changing energy landscape to advance an expanded oil drilling agenda, pushing Democrats back with cries of "Drill Baby, Drill!" and seizing control of the energy debate for the first time since the 2006 election.

De