To the extent that the American elite shares a consensus, it is a combination of pessimism about technology and optimism about politics—particularly world politics. In my view this synthesis provides a picture that is the opposite of reality, in which amazing technological progress will continue to take place on a planet whose politics is characterized by national and sub-national conflict, irrationality, and ignorance. This seems so obvious to me that I don’t understand why most educated and thoughtful people in the U.S. and the world generally hold perceptions that are exactly opposite mine. In the words of the eighteenth-century British poet Christopher Smart, who was confined to London’s infamous Bedlam asylum: “I said they were mad, and they said I was mad, and damn them, they outvoted me.”
Let’s start with technological pessimism. The story of how Malthusian doomsayers, from the 1970s onward, have been repeatedly proven wrong about impending global famines, natural resource depletion and energy scarcity is well known. Even in the case of anthropogenic global warming, the reality of which always-tentative science supports, environmentalists have tended to engage in apocalyptic exaggeration.
Fashionable environmental pessimism has now been joined by fashionable pessimism about technology. The economist Tyler Cowen’s claim that we are living in an “innovation drought” was widely and respectfully discussed by a chattering class that welcomes gloomy views, at least in the areas of technology and the economy. And yet, in this supposed “innovation drought,” the radical new technologies that are moving from the laboratory to military or commercial applications include brain-computer interfaces, quantum computing, robotic manufacturing, robot cars and trucks, drones, and in vitro food production. Where in all that innovation is the drought?
For reasons I don’t understand, pessimism about the potential for technology-driven economic progress tends to be accompanied, among the bien pensant, by naïve optimism about the potential for cooperation and harmony in world politics. Following the Cold War, there was widespread hope that at last world governance under the UN Security Council would be realized. When gridlock on the Security Council outlived the Cold War, most of the bipartisan establishment bought into other utopian visions.
One was the idea of “globalization” as an irresistible force that would eliminate all national barriers to trade, investment and mass immigration. Another, more nationalistic version of utopia was the idea of indefinite American global hegemony, with the U.S. welcomed as the world’s police officer. Amazingly, both utopias have survived the Great Recession and botched American wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, and continue to shape the assumptions of the typical American foreign policy apparatchik. In the same way, Marxist-Leninist nonsense about the contradictions of capitalism and inter-imperialist rivalries shaped the mindset of Soviet careerists, long after reality had shredded that particular ideology.