Genetically Modified Crops in Kenya

This report was a collaboration between BTI, the Alliance for Science, the African Agricultural Technology Foundation, ISAAA Africenter, and the International Potato Center, and was authored by:

Emma Kovak, Sheila Ochugboju, Mark Lynas, Akefetey Ephraim, Fiona Mosongo, Michael Onyango, Vitumbiko Chinoko, Verenardo Meeme, Daniel Kyalo Willy, Margaret Karembu, Edna Wanjiru, Marc Ghislain and Evelyne Kihiu

Executive Summary

In order to feed a growing population, crop production must increase—ideally through increases in crop yields. However, though crop yields are increasing on a global scale, farmland area is also expanding through deforestation, which increases greenhouse gas emissions, destroys wildlife habitat, and reduces crucial ecosystem services. Since 2000, a global area over twice the size of Kenya has been cleared of native vegetation like forests to make space for more crop land.¹ The greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation then contribute to global climate change, which causes further negative impacts on food production. Agriculture has a huge impact as the sector is the biggest driver of deforestation globally. In contrast to farmland expansion, increasing crop yields can boost food production without causing additional deforestation.

Historically, yield improvement has been driven by the adoption of improved agricultural technologies such as crop varieties with enhanced genetic potential such as conventional hybrids complemented by fertilizers and use of Good Agronomic Practices (GAPs). Genetically modified (GM) crops have also shown tremendous potential to improve crop production in Kenya and across much of Africa. Despite this potential, the adoption of the technology has been delayed owing to legal challenges fueled by misinformation.

The history of GM crops in Kenya dates back over 20 years ago when research on Bt cotton started. Cotton became the first GM crop available to Kenyan farmers in 2020, making the country’s cotton crop less vulnerable to the bollworm pest. Shortly after, three varieties of Bt maize became ready for commercialisation in 2021, which could protect farmers’ crops from maize stem borer and fall armyworm damage but are still awaiting cabinet approval for commercialisation. Kenyan scientists are also developing disease-resistant GM varieties of cassava and potato.

Though Bt cotton has been commercialised, the approval and commercialisation processes for both Bt cotton and Bt maize have faced significant delays in Kenya due to a ten-year ban on the importation of GM crops (2012–2022) and subsequent court cases challenging the lifting of the ban. Though the ban was specifically on importation of GM crops, it was interpreted as a ban on commercialisation of GM crops within the country as well. These delays have had notable economic repercussions and have hindered progress in agricultural innovation.

This report assesses the potential economic and environmental benefits of three GM crops in Kenya—Bt cotton, Bt maize, and late blight disease-resistant potato—and the economic cost of the delays in the commercialization of these products. As a proxy for the cost of delayed adoption, we estimate the potential economic benefits of these three GM crops in terms of the additional crop yields and farmer profits, decreased pesticide use, and lower food prices for consumers attributable to the adoption of the technology using the DREAMpy model. We also estimated the environmental benefits in terms of reduced global greenhouse gas emissions due to reductions in deforestation using the Carbon Opportunity Cost approach.

Our simulation of benefits starts with the beginning of research and development of each GM crop variety and continues through commercial adoption—the exact years vary between crops due to their different development timelines. We estimate that all together, five years of delay in approval of Bt cotton, Bt maize, and late blight disease-resistant potato may have cost Kenyan farmers and consumers 157 million USD (Figure 1).

Key Findings By Crop:

Bt maize

• We estimate that five years of unnecessary delays in Kenya’s commercial adoption of Bt maize cost the country’s farmers and consumers USD 67 million.[MOU1] [MOU2] [EK3]
• Without five years of delay, Bt maize could have been available to farmers as early as 2019, generating significant economic benefits by reducing pesticide useage and thereby costs, increasing farmer yields and profits, and reducing food prices for consumers.
• We project that, by 2030, the total economic benefits of Bt maize without delay in release could have reached USD 218 million.
• If Kenya had started growing Bt maize in 2019, then in 2024—after the technology would have spread to more farmers—the country could have produced 194,000 tons more domestic maize. This is equal to 25% of imports received in 2022, and 14 times higher than the total maize food transfer from the UN World Food Programme to Kenya in 2023. The increase in domestic production could also strengthen the country’s crop yields compared to Tanzania, its closest competitor in East Africa.

Bt cotton

• Due to five years of delay in the release of Bt cotton in Kenya, we estimate a cost to the country’s farmers and consumers of USD 1.2 million.
• Without five years of delay, Bt cotton could have been released in Kenya in 2015 rather than 2020 and could have benefited Kenyan farmers and consumers by a total of USD 2.6 million by 2028.
• If Kenya had started growing Bt cotton in 2015, then in 2023—when the technology would have spread to more farmers—the country could have produced 650 tons more domestic cotton. This increase in domestic production could have replaced 12% of the cotton imported in 2022.
• Our projections are based on the current state of Kenya’s cotton sector, with decreasing area and production. Bt cotton has the potential to help revitalise Kenya’s textile industry, and earlier release of the variety may have helped prevent some of the ongoing decline in the sector.

Late blight disease-resistant potato:

• We estimate that the release and commercialization of the late blight disease-resistant 3R-gene Shangi potato variety would benefit Kenyan farmers and consumers by USD 163 million and 84 million respectively, over a period of 30 years.
• A 5-year lag in the release of the 3R-gene Shangi would reduce the benefits to farmers and consumers by USD 59 million and USD 30 million respectively.
• An increase in domestic production of potato, a dietary staple for subsistence farmers, could strengthen the country’s food security.

We project that if Bt maize and Bt cotton were widely adopted in Kenya, the increase in yields would reduce global deforestation and land use change due to agriculture, resulting in enough land-sparing to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 0.23–0.72 million metric tons of CO₂e per year, equivalent to 0.2–0.7% of Kenya’s total GHG emissions in 2020.² We did not estimate the potential for GM late blight disease-resistant potato to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions because the crop is used almost solely as subsistence in Kenya, and therefore is not part of global agricultural trade that impacts global emissions.

Finally, adoption of GM crops can have many other advantages including a reduction in pesticide use, which benefits both human health and the environment; an increase in the country’s food security and food/economic self-sufficiency resulting to decreased dependence on rising food aid and imports; and increased competitiveness within trading blocs like COMESA.

To capitalise on the full potential of GM technology, it is imperative that Kenya should avoid further costly delays and ensure the timely review and approval of future GM crops. This approach is essential not only for enhancing agricultural productivity but also for contributing to the reduction of agriculture’s sizable global carbon footprint.