Not Dead Yet
Apr 22, 2016
1. IAEA PRIS database https://www.iaea.org/pris/ There were also nuclear closures: six small Japanese reactors that had been shut down for years were officially retired; two operating plants in Britain and Germany with a capacity of 1.77 GW also closed, but their loss was balanced by the restart of two Japanese reactors with a capacity of 1.69 MW and net uprates of 0.46 GW.
2. World Nuclear Association country reports.
5. “BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015” workbook. Wind ended 2013 with 321 GW capacity worldwide and ended 2014 with 373 GW, during 2014 global wind generation was 706.2 TWh, for a capacity factor of 23.2 percent. I assume 25 percent because of a higher percentage of offshore wind in 2015’s additions.
6. “BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015” workbook. Following procedure in note 5 gives a global solar capacity factor of 13.5 percent, I assume 15 percent for last year’s solar installations.
7. For Russia’s Beloyarsk 4 fast reactor I assume the same lifetime capacity factor as its predecessor Beloyarsk 3 fast reactor, 75 percent, from IAEA PRIS database https://www.iaea.org/pris/CountryStatistics/ReactorDetails.aspx?current=484
8. World Nuclear Association China report gives a highest estimate of CPR-1000 costs of $2,300 per kilowatt, assumed to be overnight costs http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.aspx . Financing costs: Rosner and Goldberg, U. of Chicago, “Analysis of GW-Scale Overnight Capital Costs,” specifically their analysis of the original budget for VC Summer in Table 6. They calculate that total project costs after escalation and financing were 36 percent higher than the overnight cost. http://csis.org/files/attachments/111129_EPIC_OvernightCost_Report.pdf With an overnight cost of $2,300 per kw for the Chinese reactors, adding $800 per kw for escalation and financing gives a total cost of $3,100 per kw, 35 percent higher than the overnight cost and in line with Rosner and Goldberg’s ratio for VC Summer. South Korea’s Shin Wolsong 2 reactor part of a 2-unit plant costing $4.58 billion or $2,385 per KW, similarly assumed financing costs to $3,100 per KW. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=201511090011269. Beloyarsk 4, 789 MW, had a total cost of 146 billion rubles, assumed pre-devaluation exchange rate of 30 rubles to the dollar. http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/-Russia-allocates-7-billion-to-reactor-operations-over-three-years-20011601.html
11. Bloomberg puts total investment in solar power in 2015 at $161.5 billion, but that seems high compared to press reports of project costs. The IEA report “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity,” 2015 edition puts average utility-scale solar overnight costs at $1,562 per KW; I’ve used that figure for all solar gigawatts in 2015, undoubtedly an underestimate. https://www.iea.org/media/presentations/150831_ProjectedCostsOfGeneratingElectricity_Presentation.pdf
12. $3,000 per kilowatt for the 8.6 GW of Chinese and South Korean capacity, plus $4.8 billion for the 789-megawatt Russian fast reactor.
13. Chinese nuclear capacity added in 2015 from IAEA PRIS databse https://www.iaea.org/PRIS/Home.aspx Chinese wind and solar capacity added http://www.windpowerengineering.com/featured/business-news-projects/china-delivers-global-record-wind-solar-installs-national-coal-consumption-drops/ Costs of Chinese wind put by Bloomberg at about $1369 per kilowatt. http://about.bnef.com/landing-pages/china-approves-34gw-new-wind-projects/ . Solar installations from press reports. Chinese solar capacity factor from “BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015” workbook 2014 statistics. Wind capacity factor of 22 percent: In 2015 China generated 185.1 terawatt-hours of wind energy, http://cleantechnica.com/2016/03/01/us-continues-lead-world-wind-energy-production-china-blows-past-eu/ , from an average grid-connected capacity of 112 GW, for a capacity factor of 19 percent. But 15 percent of wind output was curtailed, without curtailment the wind capacity factor would have been 22 percent
14. China’s 2015 wind generation was 185.1 TWh http://cleantechnica.com/2016/03/01/us-continues-lead-world-wind-energy-production-china-blows-past-eu/ up from 153.4 TWh in 2014 http://www.reuters.com/article/china-power-windpower-idUSL4N0VM3XJ20150212 Nuclear generation in 2015 was 171 Twh in 2015, up from 133 in 2014 http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201602/t20160229_1324019.html
18. http://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1361466/analysis-china-adds-uhv-network-transfer-surplus-wind-energy http://www.rechargenews.com/wind/1422876/chinese-wind-curtailment-hit-15-percent-in-2015-on-33gw-of-new-capacity-nea http://www.nea.gov.cn/2015-07/28/c_134455530.htm
22. IAEA PRIS database, https://www.iaea.org/pris/
27. Information on the Vogtle build is drawn from the multiple testimonies of Georgia Public Service Commission oversight staff William Jacobs, Stephen Roetger and Philip Hayet, see GPSC docket 29849. http://www.psc.state.ga.us/factsv2/Docket.aspx?docketNumber=29849 .
28. Testimony of William R. Jacobs, Jr. to Georgia Public Service Commission, December 7, 2012, pp. 16-17. http://www.psc.state.ga.us/factsv2/Document.aspx?documentNumber=145142
29. Fourteenth Semi-Annual Construction Monitoring Report for Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4
30. Testimony of William R. Jacobs, Jr. to Georgia Public Service Commission, December 7, 2012, pp. 16-17. http://www.psc.state.ga.us/factsv2/Document.aspx?documentNumber=145142 pp.28-29.
36. http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/newssummary/news_20-2-2014-9-18-49 , http://www.shropshirestar.com/news/2015/10/05/19-acre-telford-solar-farm-plan-moves-a-step-closer/ .
38. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/04/21/did-exelon-corporation-just-quietly-admit-that-nuc.aspx ; http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/11/05/nuclear-power-dead-in-the-water-it-poisoned/ ; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-15/soon-it-may-be-easier-to-build-a-nuclear-plant-in-iran-than-in-the-u-s-
39. Testimony of of Georgia Public Service Commission oversight staff William Jacobs and Stephen Roetger, December 2012, pp. 20-21, GPSC docket 29849. http://www.psc.state.ga.us/factsv2/Docket.aspx?docketNumber=29849
40. For Example, ibid; pp. 25-6.
41. Georgia Power 2015 Annual Report, p. 8 https://www.georgiapower.com/docs/about-us/2015GPCAnnualReport.pdf