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Energy ArchivesDavid Wheeler Gets It Right, but Not Exactly
Wheeler's report is important because it identifies the real barriers to passing legislation focused on regulating carbon emissions in order to address climate change. However, greens and environmentalists are looking through rose-tinted glasses if they think the fight to pass this type of legislation is anything but steep, even steeper than it is made out to be in Wheeler's work.
David Wheeler at the Center for Global Development published an econometric analysis of the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act's failure in Congress just a few months ago. The report, entitled, "Why Lieberman-Warner Failed," is an analysis of the June 6th cloture vote to end debate and the variables that could most easily predict each senator's individual yea or nay on whether to bring the bill to a vote over authorization. I read through the analysis and conclusions and overall found a mixed bag with some good conclusions about what is impeding climate legislation, but that underestimated the uphill struggle market-based carbon-regulation legislation would face. The bulk of the paper is an analysis of the cloture vote, which failed to get its necessary 60 votes by a dozen, while 16 senators were not in senate to vote. Wheeler uses variables such as a state's proportion of power from fossil fuels, median state per capita income, senator's degree of political conservatism, senator's party affiliation, senator's gender, energy sector campaign contributions, and degree of risk from climate change-related disasters to see if any of these variables could predict with accuracy the senator's vote for or against cloture. Continue reading "David Wheeler Gets It Right, but Not Exactly" » Invest in America
Four years ago we argued in "The Death of Environmentalism" that greens didn't need to win the debate over the relative seriousness of global warming in order to enact policies capable of dealing with it. At the time, that claim was viewed as paradoxical and even heretical.
Breakthrough founders Michael Shellenberger & Ted Nordhaus have been engaged in a discussion at Cato Unbound on what to do about climate change. The lead essay, written by conservative libertarian Jim Manzi, argues that global warming, while real, is a problem of limited magnitude, deserving a proportional response, not overreaction. Coverage of the debate here. by Michael Shellenberger & Ted Nordhaus A Pivotal Moment
With Americans focused on energy prices as never before, a game-changing shift is occurring in the American political climate. The time has come for climate and clean energy advocates to adopt a new strategy and policy agenda. Next year will see the inauguration of a new president, a new Congress, and a new international agreement on global warming. The moment is far too urgent to fall on our swords for a cap-and-trade agenda developed in an entirely different political environment.
There's one thing at the top of Americans' minds these days: energy prices. Prices at the pump have been hitting Americans hard for months now, and an overwhelming majority (87%) do not foresee things getting any better before the end of the year. As of June, concern for energy prices eclipsed the Iraq War as #2 on the Gallup monthly poll
of top American concerns (just behind concerns over the ailing
economy). And as Republicans and Democrats enter their conventions still sparring over oil drilling, energy is now the #1 election issue.
All of this paints a very clear picture of where Americans are at: they are focused on their pocketbooks, grimacing every time they head to the gas station to fill 'er up. This new focus on energy prices is a game changer for the world of energy and climate policy. Why We Can Disagree to Agree
In a debate at the Cato Institute, Shellenberger and Nordhaus argue that liberals and conservatives don't need to agree about the seriousness of global warming. We can all embrace investment in energy infrastructure, technology, and education for reasons that have nothing to do with climate change.
For 20 years, liberals and conservatives have been locked in a debate about the relative seriousness of climate change. Conservatives have either denied that it was happening or played down its significance, while liberals and environmentalists have tended to see it as ecological apocalypse meriting either extreme personal sacrifice or a supposed cost-free regulatory fix. That debate is now undergoing a major shift. Conservatives like Jim Manzi, Newt Gingrich and others recognize that humans are affecting the climate and that something should be done about it. Liberals and environmentalists, like Joe Romm and most recently Al Gore, are beginning to recognize the political futility of peddling sacrifice, and have started emphasizing the need to make clean energy cheap. To be sure, both camps are still far apart in their view of global warming, with Romm seeing it as a future hell on earth and Manzi viewing it as little more than a rounding error. But if we fixate on these radically divergent views of the problem we risk missing some signs of agreement over what should be done about it. Now, to Refine the Energy Solution.
Climate change, economic revival, energy abundance: these are big challenges. But we need a more sophisticated plan than "take everything we can get!"
by Helen Aki, Breakthrough Generation Fellow
There's a simple relationship between energy and civilization: more energy means more activity, growth, and prosperity. The defining challenge of our era is to think responsibly about how we use energy, as we strive to meet the demands of developing nations, struggle with a failing economy, and mitigate climate change. Part of the problem is that we've taken energy for granted. Energy fuels everything we do. But we've outgrown our youthful years of abundant oil, as a nation and as a planet. Richard Smalley estimated in 2004 that if the world population were to stabilize at 10 billion people, they would demand 60 terawatts of energy in order to live prosperous, secure lives--more than four times what we currently use. At the same time, the oil that drove America's progress is becoming less and less viable as an energy source. It is becoming increasingly clear that the most sophisticated and effective option is not to simply throw more energy, any energy, at the problem(s). So what now? Democrats Are Losing the Battle of the Century
Democrats are getting trounced on the biggest election issue and quickly losing the most important political battle of the new century: energy. So why are they losing and what will it take to win the energy battle?
No, it's not the 2008 election. It's the fight over the future of American energy policy. And Democrats are getting trounced by a disciplined Republican offensive on oil drilling. According to a statewide survey released on July 30th, a slim majority of Californians now supports expanded oil drilling off our state's treasured coastline. Support for offshore drilling is even up six percent among the state's Democrats. In a land where offshore drilling has been a third-rail of politics for decades, this new surge in support for drilling is as sure a sign that Democrats are quickly losing ground to the vigorous GOP offensive to Drill! Drill! Drill! for more oil. Continue reading "Democrats Are Losing the Battle of the Century" » Are We Losing the Race?
While the U.S. drags its feet, our competitors abroad are poised to wrest the upper hand in the new energy economy.
Written by Breakthrough Generation fellow Zach Arnold We're all used to the sense of ecological urgency that accompanies the climate debate. Green activists work with the knowledge that the time for action is limited, as rising emissions push the global climate toward irreversible changes. But there's another ticking clock out there, one that may be about to run out: while the U.S. drags its feet, our competitors abroad are poised to wrest the upper hand in the new energy economy. And as usual, no competitor looms larger than China. Last week, I blogged about China's wind economy, which is currently expanding at a pace somewhere between mind-boggling and out of control. Yesterday, the Climate Group released some highlights from their upcoming report on China's renewable economy. To wit:
Impressive figures, although of course, they pale in comparison to China's far larger fossil fuel numbers. 820 MW of solar power? China adds that much capacity in coal literally every few days. Nonetheless, what we're seeing now in China are the vital first stirrings of a new sort of energy. Renewable sources are finally coming into their own as substantial additions to the grid, and massive development is only going to speed the advent of clean tech, as turbines and PV panels become cheaper and faster to produce with every new factory that goes online. I discussed several of the factors behind China's wind rush in my post last week, and most of them apply to clean tech efforts in general (although efficiency regulations, as I discussed, are an entirely different story). With China's strong, pro-renewable government incentives and breakneck pace of development, it's entirely plausible that China will become the world leader in renewables development sooner rather than later, gaining the upper hand in a lucrative and quickly growing global industry - especially considering that China's only potential major opponent is busy bickering over offshore drilling... A Smart Investment In Energy Education
The Breakthrough Institute has recently released on what a comprehensive new national energy education policy might look like. We thought we'd provide a little background on how just powerful an investment in education can be.
By Genevieve Bennett, Breakthrough Generation Fellow See our policy fact sheet "Ignorance," Thaddeus Stevens once noted, "is more costly than taxes." Wise words - and indicative of a kind of long-term thinking in which we only seem to engage in fits and starts here in the U.S. Consider that federal financing of loans for higher education and workforce training is a relatively new development. 2008 marks the fiftieth anniversary of the National Defense Education Act, a bill that authorized $6.7 billion (2008 dollars) to improve access to and quality of education in strategic defense-related fields: science, math, engineering, technology, foreign languages, and area studies. New Energy Education Proposal Featured in Two Newspapers
Breakthrough Institute's new National Energy Education Act proposal has drawn attention from coast to coast, securing two op-eds published in The San Francisco Chronicle and Baltimore Sun. Both pieces focus on how America can lead the way in forging a global clean energy economy by investing in education.
coverage by Adam Solomon Zemel, Breakthrough Generation Jesse Jenkins and Teryn Norris, co-directors of the Breakthrough Generation program at the Breakthrough Institute, published two op-eds this week in two newspapers on opposite sides of the country -- the Baltimore Sun and the San Francisco Chronicle. Both pieces focus on how America can lead the way in forging a global clean energy economy by investing in education. Continue reading "New Energy Education Proposal Featured in Two Newspapers" » From Microchips to Clean Tech: The Military's Role in a Renewable Energy Future
Renewable energy is a clear strategic asset for the military, and military demand could help drive the cost reductions that clean tech needs in order to become a core energy solution.
Written by Breakthrough Generation fellow Zach Arnold Look behind many of the key technologies of the 20th and 21st centuries, and you'll see a long history of military involvement. The U.S. armed forces kick-started American dominance in civil aviation through their demand for planes during WWI, and later drove the growth of the computer industry by buying every microchip and supercomputer in sight during the 60's. Military scientists and military-funded researchers developed the ideas behind the Internet, nuclear power, and personal computing. Indeed, the U.S. military has arguably been the greatest force for technological growth in modern times. And now, it's time for renewable energy to get the Army treatment. Let's look back to the 1960s. Jack Kilby, a scientist at Texas Instruments, had pioneered an innovative circuit design a few years earlier by packing several transistors onto a single conductive "chip," creating a "microchip" that stood to be more reliable, better suited to mass production, and far faster than existing circuitry. It was the military - not the consumer market - that quickly realized the strategic value of Kilby's achievement. Throughout the early 1960's, military agencies bought virtually every microchip manufacturers could produce. These purchases enabled big advances in military technology, facilitating projects like Minuteman and Apollo and cementing America's position as a military power. And a funny thing happened along the way. Continue reading "From Microchips to Clean Tech: The Military's Role in a Renewable Energy Future" » Act Now: Last Chance for Congress to Pass Critical Renewable Energy Incentives
It's our last chance to tell Congress to extend the critical renewable energy incentives. After all, if we're spending so much time arguing about how to expand supplies of that old, dirty oil stuff, shouldn't America's vast and untapped reserves of clean, cheap domestic renewable energy be something we can all agree to develop?
It looks like Congress has one last shot to overcome partisan demagoguery and pass a bill that funds extensions of the soon-to-expire federal renewable energy incentives. The Senate is set to vote as early as tomorrow on S. 3335, a bill that extends the critical Production Tax Credit and Investment Tax Credit for clean, American renewable energy sources like wind, solar and geothermal energy. This is our last chance to tell Congress we want more, clean, cheap American energy and it's time to extend the critical renewable energy incentives that make it possible. Continue reading "Act Now: Last Chance for Congress to Pass Critical Renewable Energy Incentives" » What Does China's Wind Boom Tell Us?
There’s really only one option - bring more price-competitive clean technologies into the global marketplace (surprise!), and put policies in place to facilitate their diffusion into China and elsewhere.
Written by Breakthrough Generation fellow Zach Arnold Over at the Environment and Energy blog, Bradford Plumer points the way to a great Guardian article on the Chinese wind boom. Wind installation there has been surpassing projections for some time, blowing through 6 GW earlier this year, and by year’s end China should lead the world in capacity. By 2010, one wind farm will add 3.8 GW - i.e., one third of total current US capacity - in its first phase of expansion. In other words, T. Boone Pickens has nothing on Chinese entrepreneurs (does anyone?). Breakthrough Responds: Why Carbon Pricing Won't Cut It
In the real world, the American polity and the American market are not ready for a tough carbon price. The best way to respond to the climate challenge right now is to massively expand the role of the federal government in researching, developing, and deploying clean technology.
This is a response to Max Epstein's guest post, "In Defense of Carbon Pricing: Why Clean Energy RD&D Isn't Enough." Our response is written by Breakthrough Generation fellow Zach Arnold. Before anything else, I want to thank Max for his thoughtful post. His arguments have been a big help in clarifying our own thinking. In my response, I'm going to try to define the problem we're trying to solve, and clarify the differences I see between a carbon price driven regime (as Max advocates) and an investment-led regime (as we're more fond of at Breakthrough). I'm then going to explore the political feasibility of a carbon price, and what a politically sustainable carbon price can and can't do to address climate change. In doing so, I hope to show that, for now, we can't rely on carbon pricing to drive the shift to a clean energy economy. Continue reading "Breakthrough Responds: Why Carbon Pricing Won't Cut It" » While We're Out There...or: A Call For Pragmatic Political Solutions
Deep sea wind farms might not have an immediate effect on gas prices, but drilling for oil out there won't either. And, considering the fact that both off shore drilling and deep sea wind have about the same 10-year frame for return on investment of resources, it only seems prudent to explore every "American Solution" we have at our disposal.
By Adam Zemel, Breakthrough Generation Fellow Deep sea wind turbines have a lot to offer: This (older) article from MIT discusses building wind farms 100 miles off shore, which shows another strength for deep sea wind: 100 miles away from the shore, farther than the human eye can see, is not anyone's backyard. There is no threat from NIMBY activists, or NIMFrontY activists, or NIMYPeriod activists. A patch of water 100 miles away from land is not in anyone's yard at all! Continue reading "While We're Out There...or: A Call For Pragmatic Political Solutions" » Guest Post: In Defense of Carbon Pricing: Why Clean RD&D Isn't Enough
If we don't price the externality cost of carbon, we won't need breakthroughs, we'll need miracles.
We've asked our friend, UMD student, and occasional Washington Post editorialist Max Epstein to contribute his thoughts on carbon pricing to the blog. Our response, by Breakthrough Generation Fellow Zach Arnold, is here. In the wake of the failed Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act, there has been a widespread reevaluation of whether Cap & Trade is the most effective strategy to avert catastrophic climate change. At first many promoted a carbon tax instead, but recently there has been a call to reconsider the central focus on pricing carbon itself. Following Lieberman-Warner's abrupt death in the Senate, Michael Shellenberger wrote that the new way forward should focus on making renewable energy cheap, not polluting sources expensive. In "Scrap Kyoto," Shellenberger and Nordhaus call for a massive public investment in clean technology research and deployment. Joseph Romm in Nature calls for massive subsidized deployment of existing renewable technology, relegating R&D to the "longer-term effort aimed at a new generation of technologies for the emissions reduction effort after 2040." However, such efforts would be insufficient without a price on carbon as well. Continue reading "Guest Post: In Defense of Carbon Pricing: Why Clean RD&D Isn't Enough" » Will Google Gore Overcome Gaia Gore?
Al Gore has finally embraced large public investments in clean energy, after years of insisting on a paradigm focused centrally on pollution regulation. Unfortunately, he doesn't address how to deal with the energy tech (and price) gap between dirty energy sources like coal and clean energy sources like solar. The question is: will the Google Gore be able to trump the Gaia Gore?
In his first major speech on global warming since he accepted the Nobel Peace Prize, Al Gore today finally acknowledged the need for major public investments to make clean energy cheap, rather than simply increase the cost of dirty energy through pollution regulation. This represents a major step forward in his own thinking, and a break from the dominant environmental approach to global warming. At the same time, Gore failed to address the central concern of policymakers in Washington: what to do about rising energy prices. The U.S. Can Become a World Leader in Solar Power
Energy experts in Europe predict that the U.S. can recapture its lost leadership position as the world's leader in solar manufacturing and development, but only if government investment continues. What we need, what we must demand, is investment to give American innovators the tools they need.
By Alisha Fowler, Breakthrough Generation Fellow The U.S. market, once the leader in solar energy manufacturing and development around the world, has fallen in recent years. But, there is renewed excitement and hope brewing for the U.S. as energy experts in Europe predict that the U.S. can and likely will surpass Japan and Germany in solar power market share in the years to come. Energy experts also agree that in order for the U.S. to successfully reclaim its leadership position, continued government investment is required. Continue reading "The U.S. Can Become a World Leader in Solar Power" » Research, Develop, Deploy and Repeat
The NYTimes' Andy Revkin debates Joe Romm who claims the time for R&D has passed. But as Revkin knows, any push to transition to a clean energy future must put money across the board into Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment.
By Adam Zemel, Breakthrough Generation Fellow
Andy Revkin has blogged today on a debate he is engaged in on the threads of Joe Romm's climateprogress.org. It's almost unclear what they are debating over before I remember that Joe Romm categorically rejects any calls for public investment in energy technology R&D as the machinations of climate deniers/delayers -- or at least as "misguided" efforts. Romm is probably right that this is the Debate of the Decade as it concerns the best way to transition to a clean energy system. Revkin posits that we need public investment in R&D in order to make scalable and bring down the price of clean energy. Romm himself admits that he has called for R&D for the past twenty years, but claims that the time when this research would have helped has passed. It is now time to focus primarily (if not entirely) on deploying the technologies currently on hand. Beyond Market Fundamentalism: Government Leadership in Energy Innovation
Market Fundamentalism has infected both sides of the debate on climate change. It's time to move past the myth of "the Free Market" when it comes to energy technology and recognize the role of government leadership and investment in history's successful innovations.
By Chris Knight, Breakthrough Generation fellow A paper by political scientist Glenn Fong starts out with a 1998 quote by Bill Gates: "The PC industry is leading our nation's economy in to the 21st century...There isn't an industry in America that is more creative, more alive and more competitive. And the amazing thing is, all this happened without any government involvement." Fong goes to on describe the myriad ways the federal government--mostly through its Advanced Research Project Agency (ARPA) --was involved in nearly every aspect of the development of the personal computer, from the human-computer interface (HCI) to the graphical user interface (GUI), to picture icons, to computer networking. Bill Gates, brilliant as he might be, seems deluded about the history of the computer. Continue reading "Beyond Market Fundamentalism: Government Leadership in Energy Innovation" » Electify America: The Coolest Car of the 21st Century Doesn't Go Vroom
Tesla Roadster represents the American quest for excellence: no complaints or mediocrity, but the creation of something that's simply the best. In a car like the Tesla, America can certainly zoom gloriously into the future.
By Helen Aki, Breakthrough Generation Fellow ...it goes "whizz!" Tesla Motors,
an innovative electric car start-up straight from the heart of Silicon
Valley, is now producing its 2008 Roadster, an all-electric sports car
than can go 0 to 60 in under 4 seconds. High-tech and emissions-free,
the Roadster celebrates a future that is not only sustainable, but sexy
and fun. (Sports car enthusiasts may find it disconcerting, however,
that when you hit the gas, the only noise from the engine is an
electrical "whizz!") Continue reading "Electify America: The Coolest Car of the 21st Century Doesn't Go Vroom" » Electrify America: Re-tooling and Re-charging the American Auto Industry
As automakers scramble to respond to rapidly shifting customer preference driven by spiking fuel prices, we now have an unprecedented and urgent opportunity to help Re-charge Detroit!
By Jesse Jenkins, Breakthrough Generation Co-Director
This post is part of our week-long Special Issue exploring ways to sever the link between transportation and oil by electrifying transportation. Stay tuned for more... Toyota Motor Company announced today it's intention to retool two U.S. manufacturing plants currently building giant, full-size trucks and SUVs to instead build hybrid-electric vehicles. Meanwhile, Ford is expected to reveal more details this month on their plans to retool several plants to build the more fuel efficient models they currently sell in Europe. As automakers scramble to react to rapidly shifting customer preference driven by spiking fuel prices, isn't it time for the United States government to make investments that help re-tool and re-charge the American auto industry? Continue reading "Electrify America: Re-tooling and Re-charging the American Auto Industry" » Electrify America: Volkswagen's New Plug-In Hybrid is Hot!
We must foster the production of both highly functioning and attractive consumer goods as we look to break our addiction to oil and transform our energy system. Volkswagen's new plug-in hybrid electric Golf may do the trick. What else do innovative auto engineers have in store?
By Alisha Fowler, Breakthrough Generation Fellow Last week, Volkswagen announced it will roll out a demonstration test fleet of 20 plug-in hybrids by 2010, with plans for mass production soon after. The most exciting part about their announcement is that this electric-diesel beauty will debut in a familiar form: the fast, fun, one might even say flirty, VW Golf. Finally! Function AND fashion. Now that is something that I feel most consumers can really get behind, and a tactic we must employ in order to create scalable solutions for our energy challenge. Continue reading "Electrify America: Volkswagen's New Plug-In Hybrid is Hot!" » Electrify China: Street Smarts, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love China
As China's car culture comes of age in a post-cheap oil world, will the rapidly developing nation leapfrog to new, innovative transportation technologies like plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles? Do they have another choice?
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