No. 20 / Spring 2024

NEPA Nightmares IV: Tule Wind

The National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) is a major source of permitting delay for important clean energy infrastructure. NEPA laws…

by Nikki Chiappa & Elizabeth McCarthy

Cheap Food Is The Only Option

The New York Times is Wrong Again on Food and Agriculture

In August, Vijaya Ramachandran and I wrote an essay pointing out the incredible myopia of New York Times coverage of food and agriculture. …

by Alex Smith

On Cockroaches, The Climate Movement, and Democracy

Why the Escalating Rhetoric and Tactics of the Climate Movement, Sooner or Later, Is Likely to End in Political Violence

When former President Donald Trump promised at a rally late last year to root out his political enemies, “the communists, Marxists, fascist…

by Ted Nordhaus

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Our Infrastructure Is Too Old

We Need to Stop Living Off The Legacy of Our Grandparents

Twelve astronauts have ever walked on the moon. As of this writing, just four are still living. The youngest is Charles Duke, who turned 89…

by Matthew L. Wald

Environmentalism Is Antithetical to Abundance

From the Death of Environmentalism to the Abundance Movement

Every now and again, a series of events unfolds in such serendipitously perfect succession as to prove a point beyond any reasonable doubt.…

by Ted Nordhaus

No, Our Adaptation to Global Warming Is Not Largely Fictional

On September 23rd, the New York Times ran a David Wallace-Wells column called “Our Adaptation to Global Warming Is Largely Fictional” featu…

by Patrick Brown

The Double Symbolism of the Three Mile Island Restart

It is hard to overstate the symbolism of Constellation Energy’s announcement last month that it planned to restart the recently shuttered T…

by Ted Nordhaus & Alex Trembath

Vermont’s Fossil Fuel Shakedown

The Climate Superfund Act Is Heavy on Discourse, Light on Logic

Earlier this year, Vermont was the first state to enact climate change cost recovery legislation—better known as a Climate Superfund Act. S…

by Jessica Weinkle

Is Climate Really on the Ballot?

Why Projections of US Emissions Under Harris Versus Trump Should Be Taken With A Grain of Salt

One of the long-standing tropes of climate politics in the United States is that as every presidential election comes into view, the future…

by Ted Nordhaus

Uninformed Nuclear Pessimism

Economist and blogger Noah Smith recently argued that, while nuclear fission had its time, the “nuclear ship has sailed.” Long an avid supp…

by Adam Stein

Seven Things You Thought You Knew about Nuclear Energy

But it might be time to re-think

We are in the decade of nuclear renaissance, at least in terms of designing and planning. The 2030s could be a time of rapid deployment. Bu…

by Matthew L. Wald

NEPA Nightmares III: The Surry-Skiffes Creek-Whealton Transmission Line

The National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) is a major source of permitting delay for important clean energy infrastructure. NEPA laws…

by Nikki Chiappa

What Nate Silver's Haters Tell Us About Climate Risk

Progressives’ Constructed Ignorance on Polling and Climate

It’s election season, which means a return to the quadrennial tradition of yelling at Nate Silver on the Internet. While I think most peopl…

by Alex Trembath

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Fact Checking “The Language of Climate Politics”

When Ted Nordhaus first suggested that I write about some of the problematic claims that I’d come across while reading Dr. Genevieve Guenth…

by George Morrison

Defending Economic Productivity and Capitalism for Climate Adaptation and Mitigation

Contrary to being a liability for adapting to and eventually solving climate change, economic productivity undergirded by private property, markets, and prices - is our primary asset.

Mainstream economic discussions, whether in the context of elections or central bank interest rates, take for granted that the underlying g…

by Patrick Brown

It Sounds Easy Enough --- Heat Your House with a Backwards Air Conditioner

But as with a lot of Decarbonization Strategies, the Devil is in the Details.

The “electrify everything” movement is coming out of the garage and targeting the basement, aiming for the home heating system. This might …

by Matthew L. Wald

Matthew Marzano Is Exactly Who I Said He Was

Nuclear Advocates Need to Demand Better

After my last post, criticizing the Democrats nominee for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Matthew Marzano, a lot of folks in the nuclear…

by Ted Nordhaus

NEPA Nightmares II: The North Sky River Wind Energy Project

The National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) is a major source of permitting delay for important clean energy infrastructure. NEPA laws…

by Nikki Chiappa & Elizabeth McCarthy

Of Course "Misinformation" Isn’t the Cause of Climate Change

The world currently produces over 8 billion tons of coal, 35 billion barrels of oil, 115 million tons of nitrogen fertilizer, and 4 trillio…

by Alex Trembath

Is Matthew Marzano the Most Under Qualified NRC Nominee Ever?

Biden Chooses Patronage and Business As Usual Over Meritocracy, Modernization, and Diversity

Cognitive dissonance within the Democratic Party about nuclear energy continues to undermine the Party’s climate and clean energy commitmen…

by Ted Nordhaus

Will Climate Change Starve Us All?

No, But Bad Science Communication and Fear Mongering Might

In 2014, Scientific American published a short but ominous article titled “Only 60 Years Left of Farming if Soil Degradation Continues.” Si…

by Alex Smith

Artificial Intelligence Goes Nuclear

Impact on the Energy Balance isn’t Obvious

Conventional wisdom is that artificial intelligence will demand vast new supplies of electricity. But technologies hardly ever operate in o…

by Matthew L. Wald

NEPA Nightmares

Tales from the Litigation Doom Loop

The Biden administration ushered in a new age of climate optimism. The Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law included b…

by Nikki Chiappa

Democrats Have to Choose: The Abundance Movement or the Climate Movement

Are Democrats finally embracing a saner, dare I say quieter climate politics?

Are Democrats finally embracing a saner, dare I say quieter climate politics? Last week, journalists at the Times, the Post, and other out…

by Alex Trembath

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What Does Exposure Growth Look Like?

Insights from Hurricane Prone North Carolina

Peak hurricane season seems to have everyone in the east and Gulf coasts on edge. Homeowners cringe at every new “formation” forecast and i…

by Jessica Weinkle

Where's the Beef in Ecomodernism?

Is it possible to reconcile intensive livestock production with animal welfare concerns? Do we need to?

Since the publication of the Ecomodernist Manifesto in 2015, one question that has come up repeatedly has been what ecomodernists had to sa…

by Ted Nordhaus

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When it Comes to Food, is the New York Times Out to Lunch?

A New Series Highlights Western Myopia on Climate and Agriculture

Journalists, academics and policymakers often talk about the “global food system.” But if there is such a thing, it isn’t really global, it…

by Vijaya Ramachandran & Alex Smith

Wishful Thinking in the Stratosphere

Jet Fuel from Corn Sounds Sustainable, but Isn’t Much Cleaner

Technologies intended to save the climate can be categorized three ways: solutions that will probably work, with a little more research &am…

by Matthew L. Wald

California’s Massive Park Fire Would be Less Severe if We Proactively Reduced Fuels

The Park Fire Shows That Both a Lack of Active Management on U.S. Forest Service Land and Land Management Optimized for Timber Production are Far from Ideal for Wildfire Safety.

Wildfire season is ramping up across the United States, and nowhere is that more apparent than in northern California, where the Park Fire …

by Patrick Brown

Two Pillars, Not Three

On Mitigation vs. Innovation in Hydrogen Production

It looks like hydrogen’s “three pillars” are wobbling. For those who haven’t been following the controversy: The Inflation Reduction Act (…

by Alex Trembath & Seaver Wang

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Moving On from the Anthropocene

Recognizing the Anthropocene as a Geological Event Allows for a Radically Humanist Approach to Climate and the Environment

The decision of geologists to decline formal recognition of the Anthropocene as an epoch, with a start date in the 1950s, has led to a furi…

by Leigh Phillips

Could Climate Hawks Dream of Hybrid Vehicles?

A Course Correction Will Likely Be Needed As EV Sales Flag

Almost 18 months ago, in the Spring of 2023, I published an essay in the Wall Street Journal with Ashley Nunes, Breakthrough’s then directo…

by Ted Nordhaus

Can Development Banks Do Better on Climate Adaptation Finance?

Evidence from the World Bank Does Not Inspire Optimism

In 1992, Al Gore termed adaptation to be “a kind of laziness, an arrogant faith in our ability to react in time to save our skin.” The evid…

by Vijaya Ramachandran

Clean Energy May be Growing, But It’s Not Replacing Dirty Energy

It’s Not Even Keeping Pace with Growing Consumption

Lots of people have high hopes for an energy transition, but they’re looking through the wrong end of the telescope. Yes, solar farms are s…

by Matthew L. Wald

We Choose to Reduce Wildfire Danger, Not Because It Is Natural But Because It Is Good

Relying on the Naturalistic Fallacy Confuses the Case for Proactive Land Management

Fire season is ramping up into full gear in the western United States (and Canada), with widespread impacts on lives, property, and health …

by Patrick Brown

Underpants Elites

"Children of a Modest Star" Reviewed

I have a review at City Journal of a new book by Jonathan Blake and Nils Gilman, who both work at the Berggruen Institute. I know Gilman i…

by Alex Trembath

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How Climate Change Hyperbole Makes America’s Insurance Problems Worse

In recent years, alarm has grown over homeowners’ increasing insurance premiums and the difficulties they face securing necessary coverage …

by Jessica Weinkle

Steven Hayward on “The Death of Environmentalism”

I’ve spent the last two weeks riding my bike through Italy and Austria, so in lieu of a post, I thought I’d share Steve Hayward’s talk look…

by Ted Nordhaus

Should We Ban Golf Courses?

On Anti-Social Environmentalism

On a beautiful Sunday in June, a typical Professional Golf Association event was coming to an exciting (for golf) end on the 18th green of …

by Alex Smith

New Trend: Trying to Restart Retired Reactors

A Sign of the Nuclear Industry’s Health, and Weakness

Policy is fickle, and villains become heroes: Swamps are now “wetlands,” stinging insects are rebranded as “pollinators,” old junk becomes …

by Matthew L. Wald

Forget Adapting to Climate Change

We Must First Adapt to the Climate We Have

Climate change adaptation continues to receive increasing attention both in international and domestic contexts. In these discussions, we a…

by Patrick Brown

Protecting Nature Because We Want To, Not Because We Have To

On Weak vs. Strong Anthropocentrism

There’s an old George Carlin bit in which the legendary comedian ridicules the popular environmentalist calls to “save the planet.” “The pl…

by Alex Trembath

The IPCC Is the Trust We Need to Bust

Legislators’ “Climate Cartel” is a science policy problem

In June, the U.S. House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Administrative State, Regulatory Reform, and Antitrust held a hearing on whether the …

by Jessica Weinkle

Yes, We Should Try to Control the Weather

The Case for Geoengineering to Limit Natural Climate Variability, Not Climate Change

Last month, the city council in Alameda, California voted to cancel a geoengineering experiment underway at a converted naval station that …

by Ted Nordhaus

Unmasking the Fear of AI’s Energy Demand

How to stop worrying and love our high-energy planet

Amongst the many energy-hungry technologies supporting modern society, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a major driver of energy…

by Vijaya Ramachandran , Juzel Lloyd & Seaver Wang

Blackstart (and Advanced Reactors) to the Rescue

An Underappreciated Feature of Advanced Reactors will Strengthen the Grid

“Blackstart” sounds like a character from a swashbuckling Errol Flynn flick, or maybe a horse that came in last at the Preakness. But black…

by Matthew L. Wald

A Rhetorical Ambiguity That Propagates Climate Misinformation

Conflating the direction of a trend with the direction of an impact misleads our understanding of the consequences of climate change

If you hear that climate change is causing something to “increase” or “decrease,” what does that mean to you? The words increasing and decr…

by Patrick Brown

Overstating the Financial Risks of Climate Change

On the use of extreme scenarios in the burgeoning field of climate risk analysis

A leading story in the Wall Street Journal’s financial section last week extolled Bill Gates’s numerous climate investments. The underlying…

by Jessica Weinkle

Long Live The Good Anthropocene

A victory for science over scientism

Earlier this spring, the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy rejected the Anthropocene Working Group’s (AWG) recommendation that the I…

by Alex Trembath

Not Dead Yet

Looking back on the Long Death of Environmentalism Twenty Years Later

Last week, at the final Breakthrough Dialogue, we celebrated and looked back upon the Death of Environmentalism, the essay that gave birth …

by Ted Nordhaus

Food Is Too Cheap, Says the UN

The Modest Proposal of True Cost Accounting for Food

The first battle in President Lydon Johnson’s “War on Poverty,” launched in 1964, was figuring out how to measure it. A Social Security Adm…

by Alex Smith

Advanced Nuclear Learns to Share the Dance Floor With Renewables

Variable renewable energy means “baseload” alone won’t cut it

Among the disconnects between energy engineers and policymakers is on the term “baseload.” It’s a shame, because a better understanding wou…

by Matthew L. Wald

What is the role of climate change in rising severe storm costs in the US? Part 2

The costs of severe storms are rising, but is this due to climate change or something else?

Welcome back to our two-part series on the role of climate change in economic losses from severe storms in the US. In Part 1, I noted that …

by Patrick Brown

Climate Economists Need to Get Their House in Order

On The Limited Value of the Social Cost of Carbon

In my latest post, co-authored with Patrick Brown, we argued that Adrien Bilal and Diego Känzig’s recent intervention into the social cost …

by Alex Trembath

How Planetary Boundaries Captured Science, Health, and Finance

The technological façade hiding a normative empire

From his perch overlooking the global community, UN Secretary General António Guterres has warned that the world is on the “highway to clim…

by Jessica Weinkle

It's the Regulation, Stupid

Revisiting Lovering, Yip, and Nordhaus, 2016

It’s not that surprising, I suppose, that both pro-nuclear and anti-nuclear progressives are in full agreement that the current nuclear reg…

by Ted Nordhaus

Giving the Lie to The Great Meat Displacement Theory

Two new studies myth-bust both extremities of the meat debate

In May, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law a bill that bans the production and sale of cultivated meat—also known as cell-cultur…

by Alex Smith

If They Come, Who Will Build It?

The challenges to advanced reactors aren't just technical and regulatory

For good and valid reasons, most of the United States has moved away from having electricity generated, transmitted and delivered by monopo…

by Matthew L. Wald

What is the Role of Climate Change in Rising Severe Storm Costs in the US? Part 1

The costs of severe storms are rising, but is this due to climate change or something else?

This is the first part of a two-part series. Part two will be posted June 19, 2024. Springtime means severe thunderstorm season—tornadoes, …

by Patrick Brown

When Activist Research Contradicts the Consensus

A new paper attacks the established consensus on the costs of climate change and is welcomed with open arms

This month, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) released a preprint of a new paper by Adrien Bilal and Diego R. Känzig that, os…

by Alex Trembath & Patrick Brown

Are Climate Advocates Making Kids Anxious for Political Gain?

Problems with the youth climate lawsuits

In a recent post, Breakthrough Deputy Director Alex Trembath wrote about the rash of climate litigation attempting to find the nation’s use…

by Jessica Weinkle

Gaslighting Intergenerational Equity

What Policy Choices Reveal About the Social Discount Preferences of the Climate Movement

For many years, it has been a standard claim of the climate movement that the issue is centrally one of intergenerational equity. Current g…

by Ted Nordhaus

Land Grabs for Carbon

Are carbon offset megadeals the future of conservation in Africa?

In 2023, Blue Carbon, a Dubai-based company, signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Liberian government for the exclusive rights to …

by Vijaya Ramachandran , Alex Smith & Satvika Mahajan

Popularity Does Not Equal Success

Everybody seems to love renewables. They have a role, but being beloved doesn’t assure that they will be successful, especially not on thei…

by Matthew L. Wald

Are Floods Dramatically Increasing Due to Climate Change? (Part Two)

On flood exposure and vulnerability

Note: This post is part of the collaborative series between The Liberal Patriot and The Breakthrough Institute called “The Climate Report” …

by Patrick Brown

We Can’t Sue Our Way to a Stable Climate

The Climate Litigation Industrial Complex Is Trying to Evade Democratic Accountability

In just the past month, US District Courts have dismissed two high-profile climate lawsuits filed against the federal government by Our Chi…

by Alex Trembath

Performing Climate Risks to Financial Stability

Are climate change models the source of our next financial crisis?

As the dust of the global financial crisis of 2007–08 settled, many of those looking for someone to blame for the economic disaster zeroed …

by Jessica Weinkle

What Climate Advocates Could Learn From US Soccer's Effort To Win the World Cup

Why Energy Policy Matters and Climate Targets Don’t

In 1998, the US Soccer Federation announced a bold initiative to win the men’s World Cup by 2010. Comparing the effort to the Apollo moon l…

by Ted Nordhaus

The Inflation Reduction Act’s “Climate-Smart Agriculture” Investments Aren’t Very Smart

How To Spend $20 Billion To Actually Reduce Agricultural Emissions

With Congress finally starting to make progress on reauthorizing the long delayed Farm Bill, a showdown over funding for so-called “Climate…

by Alex Smith

Are We There Yet?

We are supposed to be in an energy transition, to zero-carbon generation. Are we?

It’s hard, contemporaneously, to pinpoint the moment of a fundamental technological transition. Maybe it’s the day that Grandma dumps her l…

by Matthew L. Wald

Are Floods Dramatically Increasing Due to Climate Change?

Part one of a two-part series: The natural hazard of floods.

Originally published by The Liberal Patriot as part of a content partnership with Patrick Brown and the Breakthrough Institute. Subscribe t…

by Patrick Brown

Stop Trying to Make "IRA 2.0" Happen

The Inflation Reduction Act Was the End of Something Old, Not the Beginning of Something New

After its passage in 2022, climate advocates and journalists called the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) “once in a generation legislation” an…

by Alex Trembath

The Climate Industry’s Misdirection Campaign

How to delegitimize institutions in service of catastrophism

“If you could control someone’s attention,” asked the famous pick-pocket Apollo Robbins in a 2013 TED talk, “what would you do with it?” W…

by Jessica Weinkle

Michael and Me

Why I won’t be commemorating the 20th anniversary of the Death of Environmentalism with its coauthor

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the publication of the Death of Environmentalism. Its publication began my personal journey from pr…

by Ted Nordhaus

The West Needs to Come to Grips with African Fertilizer Needs

Organic Agriculture Won't Feed the World

One of the many impacts of Russia’s war against Ukraine was a spike in global food prices. Although food prices are lower today than they …

by Vijaya Ramachandran & Alex Smith

Small is Ugly

Why Real Environmentalists Go Big

Forget what you’ve heard. Small isn’t beautiful, at least when it comes to energy. Small is ugly, dirty, and expensive. Clean, affordable a…

by Matthew L. Wald

The Social Feedback Loops That Constrain Climate Science

Self-reinforcing feedback loops in the climate system garner a lot of attention, but less-appreciated social feedback loops affect the generation of climate science itself, with real consequences

If researchers were perfectly dispassionate reasoners with no motivations other than truth-seeking, their published papers could be taken a…

by Patrick Brown

Confronting Climate Change in Surprisingly Offline Times

Climate hawks are extremely online. It might be the key characteristic differentiating them from the OG environmentalist advocates who prec…

by Alex Trembath

Reconstructing a Center That Can Hold

Breakthrough Journal Moves to Substack

Almost 15 years ago, editors Ted Nordhaus (here again) and Michael Shellenberger (long gone) launched the Breakthrough Journal with an ode …

by Ted Nordhaus , Alex Trembath & Alex Smith

Will the Next President Get Nuclear Right?

The next administration’s energy challenge may be catching up with the homework assigned by the current one

Nuclear energy doesn’t usually figure prominently in Presidential elections. It doesn’t rank high on the list of concerns for most voters—l…

by Matthew L. Wald

The Case For Small Reactors

Earlier this month, Alex Trembath and I wrote about why the Three Mile Island restart tells us a lot about the significant role that nuclea…

by Ted Nordhaus & Adam Stein

Is an Equitable Carbon Offset Industry Possible?

The C-Quest Capital Scandal and Western Elitism

On October 2nd, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it had filed and settled a cease-and-desist order against C-Quest Ca…

by Jessica Weinkle

We Have Never Been Normal

Reckoning With The MAGA Majority and WEIRD Progressives

On the day that Donald Trump announced his Muslim ban, a week into his presidency in 2017, I was flying from San Francisco to Washington, D…

by Ted Nordhaus

Defending Economic Productivity and Capitalism for Climate Adaptation and Mitigation - Part 2

Contrary to being a liability for adapting to and eventually solving climate change, economic productivity undergirded by private property, markets, and prices - is our primary asset.

In Part 1, I outlined the recent rise of the Degrowth Movement, where its supporters argue that the immense and urgent challenge of climate…

by Patrick Brown

Think Locally, Act Globally

To Export Nuclear Climate Solutions, it’s Time to Reverse the Dictum

The world has a crying need for a new class of high-tech products that companies in the United States have designed and are trying hard to …

by Matthew L. Wald

Time for Democrats to Move on From Marzano Nomination

Why Continuing A Zombie Confirmation Effort Will Undermine Regulatory Modernization

If Senator Tom Carper, the retiring chair of the outgoing Democratic majority on the Senate Environment and Public Works committee, has his…

by Ted Nordhaus

Alex Smith

Editorial Director

Recent Articles

Cheap Food Is The Only Option Will Climate Change Starve Us All?

Alex Trembath

Deputy Director

Recent Articles

The Double Symbolism of the Three Mile Island Restart What Nate Silver's Haters Tell Us About Climate Risk

Jessica Weinkle

Associate Professor, University of North Carolina, Wilmington

Recent Articles

Vermont’s Fossil Fuel Shakedown What Does Exposure Growth Look Like?

Matthew L. Wald

Independent Energy Analyst and Writer